Estrela

Estrela

VS Scheduled Sunday 25 Apr 202701:00

Portugal 26/27 Liga Portugal · Matchday 31

Porto

Head-to-head overview

6 meetings

EstrelaWins: 1
Draws0.0% of meetings: 0
PortoWins: 5

Goals per match: 2.33
Over 2.5 goals: 33.3%
Both teams scored: 33.3%

Date	Season	Match
2026-04-26	25/26	Estrela1–2Porto
2025-12-15	25/26	Porto3–1Estrela
2025-04-26	24/25	Estrela2–0Porto
2024-12-16	24/25	Porto2–0Estrela
2024-02-17	23/24	Porto2–0Estrela
2023-09-15	23/24	Estrela0–1Porto

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Estrela0–2Academico Viseu
2026-09-14	26/27	Rio Ave3–3Estrela
2026-09-10	26/27	Estrela2–1Sp Braga
2026-09-05	26/27	Estrela2–2Famalicao
2026-08-30	26/27	Nacional2–3Estrela
2026-08-15	26/27	Alverca2–2Estrela
2026-08-08	26/27	Estrela2–2Sp Lisbon
2026-05-16	25/26	Sp Braga2–2Estrela

Porto

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Porto3–1Benfica
2026-09-13	26/27	Casa Pia1–4Porto
2026-09-12	26/27	Casa Pia1–4Porto
2026-09-04	26/27	Porto2–1Moreirense
2026-08-29	26/27	Academico Viseu0–3Porto
2026-08-23	26/27	Porto2–0Arouca
2026-08-15	26/27	Rio Ave0–2Porto
2026-08-09	26/27	Porto2–0Alverca

Estrela Porto

Wins

25%

100%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

62%

Both teams scored

88%

50%

Clean sheets

0%

50%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Estrela

Home · Liga Portugal

Home			Away		1st goal
9	Estrela		Porto	1
9	Estrela		Benfica	2
9	Estrela		Santa Clara	3
9	Estrela	2–2	Sp Lisbon	4	—
9	Estrela	0–2	Academico Viseu	5	10′ Away
9	Estrela		Arouca	6
9	Estrela	2–1	Sp Braga	7	5′ Away
9	Estrela		Alverca	8
9 · Estrela
9	Estrela	2–2	Famalicao	10	2′ Away
9	Estrela		Gil Vicente	11
9	Estrela		Maritimo	12
9	Estrela		Moreirense	13
9	Estrela		Guimaraes	14
9	Estrela		Nacional	15
9	Estrela		Rio Ave	16
9	Estrela		Casa Pia	17
9	Estrela		Estoril	18

Porto

Away · Liga Portugal

Home			Away		1st goal
1 · Porto
2	Benfica		Porto	1
3	Santa Clara		Porto	1
4	Sp Lisbon		Porto	1
5	Academico Viseu	0–3	Porto	1	5′ Away
6	Arouca		Porto	1
7	Sp Braga		Porto	1
8	Alverca		Porto	1
9	Estrela		Porto	1
10	Famalicao		Porto	1
11	Gil Vicente		Porto	1
12	Maritimo		Porto	1
13	Moreirense		Porto	1
14	Guimaraes		Porto	1
15	Nacional		Porto	1
16	Rio Ave	0–2	Porto	1	11′ Away
17	Casa Pia	1–4	Porto	1	43′ Home
17	Casa Pia	1–4	Porto	1	—
18	Estoril		Porto	1

Estrela Home Porto Away

Wins

25%

100%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

75%

Over 3.5

50%

Both teams scored

75%

50%

Clean sheets

0%

50%

Scores first

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Liga Portugal · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Estrela

7 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away3 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	1.25	1.67	1.43
Draws	50.0%	66.7%	57.1%
Goals scored / match	1.50	2.67	2.00
Goals conceded / match	1.75	2.33	2.00
Total goals / match	3.25	5.00	4.00
Failed to score	25.0%	0.0%	14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	0.0%	14.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Porto

8 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away4 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	3.00	3.00	3.00
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	2.25	3.25	2.75
Goals conceded / match	0.50	0.50	0.50
Total goals / match	2.75	3.75	3.25
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	25.0%	37.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Estrela	Draw	Porto	How it works
Strength (Elo)	16.4%	12.8%	70.9%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	5.6%	10.9%	74.8%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.70–3.03 Model expected goals

63.2% Probability of over 2.5 goals

43.5% Both teams to score

0-3 Most likely score, at 11.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-311.1%

0-211.0%

0-48.4%

1-37.8%

1-27.7%

0-17.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Estrela	Porto	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1453	1750	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	48	-31	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1536	1502	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	45.8%	62.7%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	47.7%	67.6%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	979	1095	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	33.3%	36.2%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	64.6%	73.3%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Estrela	0.50	0.85	0.70	0.95
Porto	1.11	1.05	0.16	0.58

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Estrela	12%	10%	18%	15%	45%
Porto	2%	22%	18%	30%	28%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.00 Estrela at home, 10 matches

2.44 Porto away, 9 matches

217d Days of rest for Estrela

217d Days of rest for Porto

— Manager of Estrela

— Manager of Porto

0 Matches for Estrela in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Porto in the last 14 days

14 Points for Estrela behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

0 Points for Porto behind the leaders, and 20 above the relegation zone

2.68 League goals per match

26.9% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Estrela, the right bar represents Porto.

On the ball

20 matches

11.28

shots

15.35

4.0

shots on target

5.53

35.5%

accuracy

36.0%

3.75

corners

6.21

12.7

fouls

13.89

2.45

yellow cards

1.89

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Estrela	LDWDWDDDDL	1.20	1.80–1.90	1L
Porto	WWWWWWWWWL	2.70	2.40–0.70	9W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Estrela	3	10	7	0	2
Porto	12	6	1	0	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Estrela

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Porto

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.