Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons

VS Scheduled Saturday 17 Oct 202612:30

England 26/27 League One · Matchday 11

Luton

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-17	26/27	AFC Wimbledon0–0Milton Keynes Dons
2026-09-13	26/27	Milton Keynes Dons1–1Peterboro
2026-09-12	26/27	Milton Keynes Dons1–1Peterboro
2026-09-05	26/27	Wycombe3–3Milton Keynes Dons
2026-09-02	26/27	Wigan3–1Milton Keynes Dons
2026-08-29	26/27	Milton Keynes Dons0–0Leicester
2026-08-22	26/27	Milton Keynes Dons1–1Huddersfield
2026-08-15	26/27	Oxford2–2Milton Keynes Dons

Luton

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Luton0–1Bradford
2026-09-10	26/27	Stevenage2–1Luton
2026-09-05	26/27	Luton1–1Leyton Orient
2026-09-02	26/27	Luton2–0Stockport
2026-08-30	26/27	Mansfield5–2Luton
2026-08-22	26/27	Luton2–2Notts County
2026-08-15	26/27	Reading3–4Luton
2026-05-02	25/26	Bolton2–3Luton

Milton Keynes Dons Luton

Wins

0%

38%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

62%

Both teams scored

75%

Clean sheets

25%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Milton Keynes Dons

Home · League One

Home			Away		1st goal
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Bradford	1
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Plymouth	2
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Cambridge	3
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Sheffield Weds	4
20	Milton Keynes Dons		AFC Wimbledon	5
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Oxford	6
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Stockport	7
20	Milton Keynes Dons	1–1	Huddersfield	8	9′ Away
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Wycombe	9
20	Milton Keynes Dons	0–0	Leicester	10	–
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Burton	11
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Reading	12
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Leyton Orient	13
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Stevenage	14
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Blackpool	15
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Mansfield	16
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Bromley	17
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Luton	18
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Barnsley	19
20 · Milton Keynes Dons
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Notts County	21
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Doncaster	22
20	Milton Keynes Dons	1–1	Peterboro	23	29′ Home
20	Milton Keynes Dons	1–1	Peterboro	23	—
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Wigan	24

Luton

Away · League One

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Bradford		Luton	18
2	Plymouth		Luton	18
3	Cambridge		Luton	18
4	Sheffield Weds		Luton	18
5	AFC Wimbledon		Luton	18
6	Oxford		Luton	18
7	Stockport		Luton	18
8	Huddersfield		Luton	18
9	Wycombe		Luton	18
10	Leicester		Luton	18
11	Burton		Luton	18
12	Reading	3–4	Luton	18	6′ Away
13	Leyton Orient		Luton	18
14	Stevenage	2–1	Luton	18	23′ Home
15	Blackpool		Luton	18
16	Mansfield	5–2	Luton	18	17′ Home
17	Bromley		Luton	18
18 · Luton
19	Barnsley		Luton	18
20	Milton Keynes Dons		Luton	18
21	Notts County		Luton	18
22	Doncaster		Luton	18
23	Peterboro		Luton	18
24	Wigan		Luton	18

Milton Keynes Dons Home Luton Away

Wins

0%

33%

Over 1.5

75%

100%

Over 2.5

0%

100%

Over 3.5

0%

67%

Both teams scored

75%

100%

Clean sheets

25%

0%

Scores first

N/A

33%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

League One · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Milton Keynes Dons

8 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away4 matches	Overall8 matches
Points / match	1.00	0.75	0.88
Draws	100.0%	75.0%	87.5%
Goals scored / match	0.75	1.50	1.12
Goals conceded / match	0.75	2.00	1.38
Total goals / match	1.50	3.50	2.50
Failed to score	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Under 2.5 goals	100.0%	25.0%	62.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Luton

7 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away3 matches	Overall7 matches
Points / match	1.25	1.00	1.14
Draws	50.0%	0.0%	28.6%
Goals scored / match	1.25	2.33	1.71
Goals conceded / match	1.00	3.33	2.00
Total goals / match	2.25	5.67	3.71
Failed to score	25.0%	0.0%	14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	75.0%	0.0%	42.9%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	0	3
31–45	0	3
46–60	2	2
61–75	1	1
76–90	3	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Milton Keynes Dons	Draw	Luton	How it works
Strength (Elo)	34.9%	25.1%	40.0%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	21.7%	21.9%	54.8%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.14–1.95 Model expected goals

57.9% Probability of over 2.5 goals

57.1% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 10.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-110.1%

1-29.9%

0-18.9%

0-28.7%

1-36.4%

2-15.8%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Milton Keynes Dons	Luton	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1473	1537	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	11	-11	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1486	1493	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	50.7%	54.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	46.4%	53.5%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1014	1050	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	30.8%	41.8%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	70.7%	63.3%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Milton Keynes Dons	0.37	0.74	0.63	0.58
Luton	1.00	0.90	0.95	0.55

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Milton Keynes Dons	12%	22%	32%	5%	28%
Luton	2%	15%	22%	28%	32%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.30 Milton Keynes Dons at home, 10 matches

1.80 Luton away, 10 matches

30d Days of rest for Milton Keynes Dons

28d Days of rest for Luton

— Manager of Milton Keynes Dons

— Manager of Luton

0 Matches for Milton Keynes Dons in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Luton in the last 14 days

11 Points for Milton Keynes Dons behind the leaders, and 0 above the relegation zone

10 Points for Luton behind the leaders, and 1 above the relegation zone

2.62 League goals per match

25.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Milton Keynes Dons, the right bar represents Luton.

On the ball

20 matches

14.18

shots

15.05

3.82

shots on target

4.79

27.0%

accuracy

31.8%

6.21

corners

6.45

10.95

fouls

11.2

1.67

yellow cards

2.05

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Milton Keynes Dons	DDDDLDDDDD	0.90	1.30–1.50	4D
Luton	LLDWLDWWWW	1.70	1.90–1.70	2L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Milton Keynes Dons	4	7	8	0	2
Luton	7	7	6	2	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Milton Keynes Dons

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Luton

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.