Bahia

Bahia

VS Scheduled Sunday 11 Oct 202623:30

Brazil 2026 Série A · Matchday 30

Mirassol

Head-to-head overview

3 meetings

BahiaWins: 1
Draws33.3% of meetings: 1
MirassolWins: 1

Goals per match: 3.67
Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%
Both teams scored: 100.0%

Date	Season	Match
2026-04-11	2026	Mirassol1–2Bahia
2025-08-31	2025	Mirassol5–1Bahia
2025-04-13	2025	Bahia1–1Mirassol

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	2026	Athletico-PR2–1Bahia
2026-09-15	2026	Bahia2–1Remo
2026-09-05	2026	Bragantino2–3Bahia
2026-08-30	2026	Bahia3–2Internacional
2026-08-23	2026	Vitoria0–2Bahia
2026-08-16	2026	Chapecoense-SC3–3Bahia
2026-08-09	2026	Bahia0–0Vasco
2026-07-30	2026	Fluminense0–0Bahia

Mirassol

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	2026	Mirassol2–0Botafogo RJ
2026-09-14	2026	Mirassol2–2Vitoria
2026-09-13	2026	Mirassol2–2Vitoria
2026-09-06	2026	Coritiba1–2Mirassol
2026-09-02	2026	Flamengo RJ2–0Mirassol
2026-08-30	2026	Mirassol1–1Palmeiras
2026-08-23	2026	Santos1–1Mirassol
2026-08-16	2026	Mirassol1–5Flamengo RJ

Bahia Mirassol

Wins

50%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

50%

Both teams scored

62%

75%

Clean sheets

38%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 2026

Bahia

Home · Série A

Home			Away		1st goal
5	Bahia		Flamengo RJ	1
5	Bahia	1–2	Palmeiras	2	—
5	Bahia	3–0	Athletico-PR	3	3′ Home
5	Bahia	1–1	Fluminense	4	20′ Away
5 · Bahia
5	Bahia	1–2	Cruzeiro	6	27′ Home
5	Bahia		Atletico-MG	7
5	Bahia	2–2	Santos	8	22′ Away
5	Bahia		Coritiba	9
5	Bahia	2–0	Bragantino	10	17′ Home
5	Bahia		Sao Paulo	11
5	Bahia	2–1	Botafogo RJ	12	—
5	Bahia	0–0	Vasco	13	–
5	Bahia	1–1	Vitoria	14	45+2′ Away
5	Bahia		Mirassol	15
5	Bahia	1–1	Corinthians	16	8′ Away
5	Bahia	3–2	Internacional	17	16′ Away
5	Bahia	1–1	Gremio	18	62′ Away
5	Bahia	2–1	Remo	19	20′ Home
5	Bahia	2–0	Chapecoense-SC	20	12′ Home

Mirassol

Away · Série A

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Flamengo RJ	2–0	Mirassol	15	14′ Home
2	Palmeiras	1–0	Mirassol	15	26′ Home
3	Athletico-PR	1–0	Mirassol	15	88′ Home
4	Fluminense		Mirassol	15
5	Bahia		Mirassol	15
6	Cruzeiro	3–1	Mirassol	15	12′ Home
7	Atletico-MG	3–1	Mirassol	15	17′ Home
8	Santos	1–1	Mirassol	15	36′ Away
9	Coritiba	1–2	Mirassol	15	61′ Home
10	Bragantino		Mirassol	15
11	Sao Paulo	1–0	Mirassol	15	76′ Home
12	Botafogo RJ	3–2	Mirassol	15	11′ Home
13	Vasco	1–1	Mirassol	15	30′ Away
14	Vitoria	1–0	Mirassol	15	28′ Home
15 · Mirassol
16	Corinthians		Mirassol	15
17	Internacional	1–2	Mirassol	15	22′ Away
18	Gremio		Mirassol	15
19	Remo	2–2	Mirassol	15	8′ Home
20	Chapecoense-SC		Mirassol	15

Bahia Home Mirassol Away

Wins

43%

15%

Over 1.5

93%

69%

Over 2.5

50%

46%

Over 3.5

14%

31%

Both teams scored

71%

62%

Clean sheets

29%

0%

Scores first

36%

23%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Série A · 2026 · Completed league matches only.

Bahia

28 matches

Goals & results	Home14 matches	Away14 matches	Overall28 matches
Points / match	1.71	1.57	1.64
Draws	42.9%	28.6%	35.7%
Goals scored / match	1.57	1.50	1.54
Goals conceded / match	1.00	1.50	1.25
Total goals / match	2.57	3.00	2.79
Failed to score	7.1%	14.3%	10.7%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	42.9%	46.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 5	80%
Scores first → wins	4 of 5	80%
Concedes first → wins	2 of 8	25%

Scoring order known: 14/14 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Mirassol

29 matches

Goals & results	Home16 matches	Away13 matches	Overall29 matches
Points / match	1.50	0.69	1.14
Draws	37.5%	23.1%	31.0%
Goals scored / match	1.44	0.92	1.21
Goals conceded / match	1.44	1.62	1.52
Total goals / match	2.88	2.54	2.72
Failed to score	12.5%	38.5%	24.1%
Under 2.5 goals	37.5%	53.8%	44.8%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 3	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 3	33%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 10	10%

Scoring order known: 13/13 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	4
16–30	4	3
31–45	3	3
46–60	0	0
61–75	1	4
76–90	4	7

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Bahia	Draw	Mirassol	How it works
Strength (Elo)	51.4%	22.8%	25.8%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	35.7%	23.5%	39.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.54–1.63 Model expected goals

60.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals

62.2% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 10.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-110.6%

1-28.6%

2-18.1%

0-16.9%

2-26.6%

1-06.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Bahia	Mirassol	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1563	1520	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	26	1	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1517	1531	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Bahia	0.70	0.85	0.75	0.65
Mirassol	0.79	0.42	0.42	1.05

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Bahia	5%	10%	32%	28%	25%
Mirassol	2%	20%	22%	28%	28%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.60 Bahia at home, 10 matches

0.89 Mirassol away, 9 matches

21d Days of rest for Bahia

22d Days of rest for Mirassol

— Manager of Bahia

— Manager of Mirassol

0 Matches for Bahia in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Mirassol in the last 14 days

17 Points for Bahia behind the leaders, and 14 above the relegation zone

30 Points for Mirassol behind the leaders, and 1 above the relegation zone

2.59 League goals per match

27.3% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Bahia, the right bar represents Mirassol.

On the ball

20 matches

5.75

corners

5.06

13.75

fouls

13.16

2.38

yellow cards

3.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Bahia	LWWWWDDDDD	1.70	1.60–1.20	1L
Mirassol	WDDWLDDLLW	1.30	1.40–1.80	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Bahia	5	8	7	2	2
Mirassol	8	8	3	0	3

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Bahia

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Mirassol

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.