Bahia

Bahia

VS Scheduled Wednesday 28 Oct 202600:00

Brazil 2026 Série A · Matchday 33

Sao Paulo

Head-to-head overview

23 meetings

BahiaWins: 5
Draws30.4% of meetings: 7
Sao PauloWins: 11

Goals per match: 2.00
Over 2.5 goals: 39.1%
Both teams scored: 43.5%

Date	Season	Match
2026-05-03	2026	Sao Paulo2–2Bahia
2025-10-26	2025	Sao Paulo2–0Bahia
2025-05-31	2025	Bahia2–1Sao Paulo
2024-11-06	2024	Bahia0–3Sao Paulo
2024-06-30	2024	Sao Paulo3–1Bahia
2023-11-29	2023	Bahia0–1Sao Paulo
2023-07-30	2023	Sao Paulo0–0Bahia
2021-11-07	2021	Bahia1–0Sao Paulo
2021-07-10	2021	Sao Paulo1–0Bahia
2020-11-28	2020	Bahia1–3Sao Paulo
2020-08-21	2020	Sao Paulo1–1Bahia
2019-10-10	2019	Bahia0–0Sao Paulo
2019-05-19	2019	Sao Paulo0–0Bahia
2018-09-08	2018	Sao Paulo1–0Bahia
2018-05-13	2018	Bahia2–2Sao Paulo
2017-12-03	2017	Sao Paulo1–1Bahia
2017-08-06	2017	Bahia2–1Sao Paulo
2014-10-18	2014	Sao Paulo2–1Bahia
2014-07-17	2014	Bahia0–2Sao Paulo
2013-10-20	2013	Bahia0–1Sao Paulo
2013-07-11	2013	Sao Paulo1–2Bahia
2012-09-02	2012	Bahia1–0Sao Paulo
2012-05-27	2012	Sao Paulo1–0Bahia

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	2026	Athletico-PR2–1Bahia
2026-09-15	2026	Bahia2–1Remo
2026-09-05	2026	Bragantino2–3Bahia
2026-08-30	2026	Bahia3–2Internacional
2026-08-23	2026	Vitoria0–2Bahia
2026-08-16	2026	Chapecoense-SC3–3Bahia
2026-08-09	2026	Bahia0–0Vasco
2026-07-30	2026	Fluminense0–0Bahia

Sao Paulo

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	2026	Sao Paulo1–0Internacional
2026-09-13	2026	Palmeiras2–0Sao Paulo
2026-09-12	2026	Palmeiras2–0Sao Paulo
2026-09-05	2026	Sao Paulo2–0Atletico-MG
2026-08-30	2026	Sao Paulo2–1Bragantino
2026-08-23	2026	Chapecoense-SC1–0Sao Paulo
2026-08-16	2026	Sao Paulo1–1Coritiba
2026-08-08	2026	Gremio2–1Sao Paulo

Bahia Sao Paulo

Wins

50%

38%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

25%

Both teams scored

62%

38%

Clean sheets

38%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 2026

Bahia

Home · Série A

Home			Away		1st goal
5	Bahia		Flamengo RJ	1
5	Bahia	1–2	Palmeiras	2	—
5	Bahia	3–0	Athletico-PR	3	3′ Home
5	Bahia	1–1	Fluminense	4	20′ Away
5 · Bahia
5	Bahia	1–2	Cruzeiro	6	27′ Home
5	Bahia		Atletico-MG	7
5	Bahia	2–2	Santos	8	22′ Away
5	Bahia		Coritiba	9
5	Bahia	2–0	Bragantino	10	17′ Home
5	Bahia		Sao Paulo	11
5	Bahia	2–1	Botafogo RJ	12	—
5	Bahia	0–0	Vasco	13	–
5	Bahia	1–1	Vitoria	14	45+2′ Away
5	Bahia		Mirassol	15
5	Bahia	1–1	Corinthians	16	8′ Away
5	Bahia	3–2	Internacional	17	16′ Away
5	Bahia	1–1	Gremio	18	62′ Away
5	Bahia	2–1	Remo	19	20′ Home
5	Bahia	2–0	Chapecoense-SC	20	12′ Home

Sao Paulo

Away · Série A

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Flamengo RJ	1–1	Sao Paulo	11	57′ Home
2	Palmeiras	2–0	Sao Paulo	11	45+1′ Home
2	Palmeiras	2–0	Sao Paulo	11	—
3	Athletico-PR		Sao Paulo	11
4	Fluminense	2–1	Sao Paulo	11	19′ Home
5	Bahia		Sao Paulo	11
6	Cruzeiro		Sao Paulo	11
7	Atletico-MG	1–0	Sao Paulo	11	64′ Home
8	Santos	1–1	Sao Paulo	11	45+5′ Home
9	Coritiba	0–1	Sao Paulo	11	57′ Away
10	Bragantino	1–2	Sao Paulo	11	36′ Home
11 · Sao Paulo
12	Botafogo RJ		Sao Paulo	11
13	Vasco	2–1	Sao Paulo	11	10′ Away
14	Vitoria	2–0	Sao Paulo	11	35′ Home
15	Mirassol		Sao Paulo	11
16	Corinthians	3–2	Sao Paulo	11	—
17	Internacional	1–1	Sao Paulo	11	23′ Home
18	Gremio	2–1	Sao Paulo	11	—
19	Remo	1–0	Sao Paulo	11	90+4′ Home
20	Chapecoense-SC	1–0	Sao Paulo	11	26′ Home

Bahia Home Sao Paulo Away

Wins

43%

13%

Over 1.5

93%

73%

Over 2.5

50%

33%

Over 3.5

14%

7%

Both teams scored

71%

53%

Clean sheets

29%

7%

Scores first

36%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Série A · 2026 · Completed league matches only.

Bahia

28 matches

Goals & results	Home14 matches	Away14 matches	Overall28 matches
Points / match	1.71	1.57	1.64
Draws	42.9%	28.6%	35.7%
Goals scored / match	1.57	1.50	1.54
Goals conceded / match	1.00	1.50	1.25
Total goals / match	2.57	3.00	2.79
Failed to score	7.1%	14.3%	10.7%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	42.9%	46.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	4 of 5	80%
Scores first → wins	4 of 5	80%
Concedes first → wins	2 of 8	25%

Scoring order known: 14/14 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Sao Paulo

28 matches

Goals & results	Home13 matches	Away15 matches	Overall28 matches
Points / match	2.08	0.60	1.29
Draws	23.1%	20.0%	21.4%
Goals scored / match	1.62	0.73	1.14
Goals conceded / match	0.77	1.47	1.14
Total goals / match	2.38	2.20	2.29
Failed to score	7.7%	40.0%	25.0%
Under 2.5 goals	61.5%	66.7%	64.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 14/15 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Bahia	Draw	Sao Paulo	How it works
Strength (Elo)	52.9%	22.2%	24.9%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	35.9%	25.2%	38.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.38–1.43 Model expected goals

52.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

56.6% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 11.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-111.9%

0-18.6%

1-28.5%

1-08.3%

2-18.2%

0-26.2%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Bahia	Sao Paulo	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1563	1509	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	26	-10	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1517	1534	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Bahia	0.70	0.85	0.75	0.65
Sao Paulo	0.63	0.53	0.37	0.95

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Bahia	5%	10%	32%	28%	25%
Sao Paulo	0%	22%	35%	25%	18%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.60 Bahia at home, 10 matches

0.18 Sao Paulo away, 11 matches

38d Days of rest for Bahia

38d Days of rest for Sao Paulo

— Manager of Bahia

— Manager of Sao Paulo

0 Matches for Bahia in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Sao Paulo in the last 14 days

17 Points for Bahia behind the leaders, and 14 above the relegation zone

27 Points for Sao Paulo behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

2.59 League goals per match

27.3% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Bahia, the right bar represents Sao Paulo.

On the ball

20 matches

5.75

corners

7.05

13.75

fouls

14.26

2.38

yellow cards

2.5

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Bahia	LWWWWDDDDD	1.70	1.60–1.20	1L
Sao Paulo	WLLWWLDLDL	1.10	0.90–1.20	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Bahia	5	8	7	2	2
Sao Paulo	9	5	5	0	6

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Bahia

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Sao Paulo

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.