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Hornchurch
VS Scheduled England 26/27 National League · Matchday 11
Aldershot
Recent matches

Hornchurch

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-26 England, National League 26/27 Altrincham3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-19 England, National League 26/27 Hornchurch1–0Scunthorpe
2026-09-15 England, National League 26/27 Worthing1–0Hornchurch
2026-09-13 England, National League 26/27 Halifax3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-12 England, National League 26/27 Halifax3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-05 England, National League 26/27 Hornchurch0–1Forest Green
2026-08-31 England, National League 26/27 Boston Utd2–3Hornchurch
2026-08-28 England, National League 26/27 Hornchurch1–0Woking

Aldershot

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-26 England, National League 26/27 Aldershot5–1Tamworth
2026-09-19 England, National League 26/27 Barrow1–0Aldershot
2026-09-15 England, National League 26/27 Aldershot1–1Yeovil
2026-09-13 England, National League 26/27 Solihull1–2Aldershot
2026-09-12 England, National League 26/27 Solihull1–2Aldershot
2026-09-05 England, National League 26/27 Aldershot1–0Halifax
2026-08-31 England, National League 26/27 Eastleigh1–1Aldershot
2026-08-28 England, National League 26/27 Aldershot3–1Harrogate
Hornchurch Aldershot

Wins

38%
62%

Over 2.5 goals

50%
50%

Both teams scored

12%
75%

Clean sheets

25%
12%
Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Hornchurch

Home · National League

Aldershot

Away · National League
Hornchurch Home Aldershot Away

Wins

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Both teams scored

Clean sheets

Scores first

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Hornchurch

11 matches
Goals & resultsHome4 matchesAway7 matchesOverall11 matches
Points / match2.250.861.36
Draws0.0%0.0%0.0%
Goals scored / match1.250.861.00
Goals conceded / match0.252.431.64
Total goals / match1.503.292.64
Failed to score25.0%57.1%45.5%
Under 2.5 goals75.0%14.3%36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time 1 of 3 33%
Scores first → wins 3 of 3 100%
Concedes first → wins 0 of 1 0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–15——
16–30——
31–45——
46–60——
61–75——
76–90——

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Aldershot

11 matches
Goals & resultsHome5 matchesAway6 matchesOverall11 matches
Points / match2.001.831.91
Draws20.0%33.3%27.3%
Goals scored / match2.001.171.55
Goals conceded / match0.800.830.82
Total goals / match2.802.002.36
Failed to score20.0%16.7%18.2%
Under 2.5 goals60.0%66.7%63.6%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time — —
Scores first → wins — —
Concedes first → wins — —

Scoring order known: 5/6 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–15——
16–30——
31–45——
46–60——
61–75——
76–90——

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

ModelHornchurchDraw AldershotHow it works
Strength (Elo) 39.6% 25.1% 35.3% Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson) 19.5% 25.3% 54.6% Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average
0.82–1.58 Model expected goals
42.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals
44.2% Both teams to score
0-1 Most likely score, at 14.3%

Most likely scores

Poisson model
0-114.3%
1-111.8%
0-211.3%
1-29.3%
0-09.1%
1-07.5%
Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

MeasureHornchurchAldershot How to read it
Strength (Elo) 1475 1494 The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10 -39 45 Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength 1513 1474 Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share 45.5% 51.0% Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share 48.4% 47.7% The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO) 1083 1159 Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion 33.3% 33.3% Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage 75.0% 82.6% Opponents' shots on target that are saved
Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches
Team1H scored2H scored 1H conceded2H conceded
Hornchurch 0.400.70 0.700.80
Aldershot 0.580.63 0.740.58

Total goals

40 matches per team
Team012 34+
Hornchurch 0%36%0%46%18%
Aldershot 2%15%25%30%28%
Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.25 Hornchurch at home, 4 matches
1.40 Aldershot away, 10 matches
3d Days of rest for Hornchurch
3d Days of rest for Aldershot
— Manager of Hornchurch
— Manager of Aldershot
3 Matches for Hornchurch in the last 14 days
3 Matches for Aldershot in the last 14 days
12 Points for Hornchurch behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone
6 Points for Aldershot behind the leaders, and 12 above the relegation zone
2.88 League goals per match
24.8% League draw rate
Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Hornchurch, the right bar represents Aldershot.

On the ball

20 matches
9.17
shots
8.5
5.0
shots on target
3.5
54.5%
accuracy
41.2%
4.5
corners
3.8
11.33
fouls
12.0
2.0
yellow cards
2.17

Recent form

10 matches
TeamLast 10PPG goalsstreak
Hornchurch LWLLLLWWLW 1.20 0.80–1.80 1L
Aldershot WLDWWWDWDL 1.80 1.60–0.90 1W

At half-time

20 matches
Teamaheadlevel behindcomeback winslead lost
Hornchurch1 36 10
Aldershot3 610 11
Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Hornchurch

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Aldershot

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.