Harrogate

Harrogate

VS Scheduled Saturday 3 Oct 202615:00

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 12

Hornchurch

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Harrogate4–1Eastleigh
2026-09-19	26/27	Boreham Wood4–1Harrogate
2026-09-15	26/27	Harrogate1–2Fylde
2026-09-13	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-12	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-05	26/27	Scunthorpe0–2Harrogate
2026-08-31	26/27	Harrogate2–1Gateshead
2026-08-28	26/27	Aldershot3–1Harrogate

Hornchurch

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Altrincham3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-19	26/27	Hornchurch1–0Scunthorpe
2026-09-15	26/27	Worthing1–0Hornchurch
2026-09-13	26/27	Halifax3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-12	26/27	Halifax3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-05	26/27	Hornchurch0–1Forest Green
2026-08-31	26/27	Boston Utd2–3Hornchurch
2026-08-28	26/27	Hornchurch1–0Woking

Harrogate Hornchurch

Wins

62%

38%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

50%

Both teams scored

88%

12%

Clean sheets

12%

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Harrogate

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
3	Harrogate		Boreham Wood	1
3	Harrogate	1–2	Fylde	2	79′ Away
3 · Harrogate
3	Harrogate		Southend	4
3	Harrogate		Aldershot	5
3	Harrogate		Kidderminster	6
3	Harrogate		Worthing	7
3	Harrogate		Yeovil	8
3	Harrogate		Altrincham	9
3	Harrogate		Forest Green	10
3	Harrogate		Sutton	11
3	Harrogate		Halifax	12
3	Harrogate		Woking	13
3	Harrogate	4–1	Eastleigh	14	6′ Home
3	Harrogate		Hornchurch	15
3	Harrogate		Wealdstone	16
3	Harrogate	2–2	Barrow	17	—
3	Harrogate		Scunthorpe	18
3	Harrogate		Carlisle	19
3	Harrogate		Boston Utd	20
3	Harrogate		Hartlepool	21
3	Harrogate	3–1	Tamworth	22	6′ Away
3	Harrogate	3–1	Tamworth	22	—
3	Harrogate	5–2	Solihull	23	44′ Home
3	Harrogate	2–1	Gateshead	24	—

Hornchurch

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood		Hornchurch	15
2	Fylde		Hornchurch	15
3	Harrogate		Hornchurch	15
4	Southend		Hornchurch	15
5	Aldershot		Hornchurch	15
6	Kidderminster		Hornchurch	15
7	Worthing	1–0	Hornchurch	15	6′ Home
8	Yeovil		Hornchurch	15
9	Altrincham	3–0	Hornchurch	15	45+3′ Home
10	Forest Green		Hornchurch	15
11	Sutton		Hornchurch	15
12	Halifax	3–0	Hornchurch	15	45′ Home
12	Halifax	3–0	Hornchurch	15	—
13	Woking		Hornchurch	15
14	Eastleigh		Hornchurch	15
15 · Hornchurch
16	Wealdstone		Hornchurch	15
17	Barrow	1–2	Hornchurch	15	57′ Away
18	Scunthorpe		Hornchurch	15
19	Carlisle	4–1	Hornchurch	15	29′ Home
20	Boston Utd	2–3	Hornchurch	15	—
21	Hartlepool		Hornchurch	15
22	Tamworth		Hornchurch	15
23	Solihull		Hornchurch	15
24	Gateshead		Hornchurch	15

Harrogate Home Hornchurch Away

Wins

71%

29%

Over 1.5

100%

86%

Over 2.5

100%

86%

Over 3.5

71%

29%

Both teams scored

100%

43%

Clean sheets

0%

Scores first

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Harrogate

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.29	1.50	2.00
Draws	14.3%	0.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.86	1.75	2.45
Goals conceded / match	1.43	2.00	1.64
Total goals / match	4.29	3.75	4.09
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	25.0%	9.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 4/7 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Hornchurch

11 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away7 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.25	0.86	1.36
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	1.25	0.86	1.00
Goals conceded / match	0.25	2.43	1.64
Total goals / match	1.50	3.29	2.64
Failed to score	25.0%	57.1%	45.5%
Under 2.5 goals	75.0%	14.3%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 6/7 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Harrogate	Draw	Hornchurch	How it works
Strength (Elo)	51.4%	22.1%	26.5%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	63.5%	18.9%	14.9%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

2.23–0.96 Model expected goals

59.2% Probability of over 2.5 goals

53.5% Both teams to score

2-0 Most likely score, at 10.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

2-010.2%

2-19.8%

1-09.2%

1-18.8%

3-07.6%

3-17.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Harrogate	Hornchurch	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1551	1475	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	25	-39	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1487	1513	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	58.8%	45.5%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	66.7%	48.4%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	929	1083	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	35.7%	33.3%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	57.1%	75.0%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Harrogate	0.79	1.32	0.68	0.58
Hornchurch	0.40	0.70	0.70	0.80

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Harrogate	2%	10%	28%	20%	40%
Hornchurch	0%	36%	0%	46%	18%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.17 Harrogate at home, 12 matches

0.86 Hornchurch away, 7 matches

7d Days of rest for Harrogate

7d Days of rest for Hornchurch

— Manager of Harrogate

— Manager of Hornchurch

2 Matches for Harrogate in the last 14 days

2 Matches for Hornchurch in the last 14 days

5 Points for Harrogate behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

12 Points for Hornchurch behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Harrogate, the right bar represents Hornchurch.

On the ball

20 matches

11.67

shots

9.17

7.0

shots on target

5.0

60.0%

accuracy

54.5%

4.5

corners

4.5

12.29

fouls

11.33

1.26

yellow cards

2.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Harrogate	WLLWWWWLDW	1.90	2.20–1.60	1W
Hornchurch	LWLLLLWWLW	1.20	0.80–1.80	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Harrogate	7	8	4	0	0
Hornchurch	1	3	6	1	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Harrogate

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Hornchurch

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.