Aldershot

Aldershot

VS Scheduled Saturday 3 Oct 202615:00

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 12

Carlisle

Head-to-head overview

2 meetings

AldershotWins: 0
Draws0.0% of meetings: 0
CarlisleWins: 2

Goals per match: 2.00
Over 2.5 goals: 0.0%
Both teams scored: 0.0%

Date	Season	Match
2026-03-10	25/26	Aldershot0–2Carlisle
2025-09-13	25/26	Carlisle2–0Aldershot

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Aldershot5–1Tamworth
2026-09-19	26/27	Barrow1–0Aldershot
2026-09-15	26/27	Aldershot1–1Yeovil
2026-09-13	26/27	Solihull1–2Aldershot
2026-09-12	26/27	Solihull1–2Aldershot
2026-09-05	26/27	Aldershot1–0Halifax
2026-08-31	26/27	Eastleigh1–1Aldershot
2026-08-28	26/27	Aldershot3–1Harrogate

Carlisle

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Carlisle2–5Woking
2026-09-19	26/27	Eastleigh1–0Carlisle
2026-09-15	26/27	Carlisle1–1Forest Green
2026-09-13	26/27	Carlisle2–2Southend
2026-09-12	26/27	Carlisle2–2Southend
2026-09-05	26/27	Boreham Wood2–1Carlisle
2026-08-31	26/27	Carlisle4–2Scunthorpe
2026-08-28	26/27	Wealdstone1–1Carlisle

Aldershot Carlisle

Wins

62%

12%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

62%

Both teams scored

75%

88%

Clean sheets

12%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Aldershot

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
5	Aldershot		Boreham Wood	1
5	Aldershot		Fylde	2
5	Aldershot	3–1	Harrogate	3	24′ Home
5	Aldershot		Southend	4
5 · Aldershot
5	Aldershot		Kidderminster	6
5	Aldershot		Worthing	7
5	Aldershot	1–1	Yeovil	8	12′ Away
5	Aldershot		Altrincham	9
5	Aldershot		Forest Green	10
5	Aldershot		Sutton	11
5	Aldershot	1–0	Halifax	12	80′ Home
5	Aldershot		Woking	13
5	Aldershot		Eastleigh	14
5	Aldershot		Hornchurch	15
5	Aldershot		Wealdstone	16
5	Aldershot		Barrow	17
5	Aldershot		Scunthorpe	18
5	Aldershot		Carlisle	19
5	Aldershot		Boston Utd	20
5	Aldershot	0–1	Hartlepool	21	69′ Away
5	Aldershot	5–1	Tamworth	22	2′ Home
5	Aldershot		Solihull	23
5	Aldershot		Gateshead	24

Carlisle

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood	2–1	Carlisle	19	—
2	Fylde		Carlisle	19
3	Harrogate		Carlisle	19
4	Southend		Carlisle	19
5	Aldershot		Carlisle	19
6	Kidderminster		Carlisle	19
7	Worthing		Carlisle	19
8	Yeovil	1–1	Carlisle	19	17′ Home
9	Altrincham		Carlisle	19
10	Forest Green		Carlisle	19
11	Sutton		Carlisle	19
12	Halifax		Carlisle	19
13	Woking		Carlisle	19
14	Eastleigh	1–0	Carlisle	19	44′ Home
15	Hornchurch		Carlisle	19
16	Wealdstone	1–1	Carlisle	19	34′ Away
17	Barrow		Carlisle	19
18	Scunthorpe		Carlisle	19
19 · Carlisle
20	Boston Utd		Carlisle	19
21	Hartlepool		Carlisle	19
22	Tamworth		Carlisle	19
23	Solihull		Carlisle	19
24	Gateshead		Carlisle	19

Aldershot Home Carlisle Away

Wins

60%

0%

Over 1.5

60%

75%

Over 2.5

40%

25%

Over 3.5

40%

0%

Both teams scored

60%

75%

Clean sheets

20%

0%

Scores first

60%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Aldershot

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.00	1.83	1.91
Draws	20.0%	33.3%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.17	1.55
Goals conceded / match	0.80	0.83	0.82
Total goals / match	2.80	2.00	2.36
Failed to score	20.0%	16.7%	18.2%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	66.7%	63.6%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	2 of 3	67%
Scores first → wins	3 of 3	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	2	0
31–45	4	0
46–60	1	1
61–75	1	1
76–90	1	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Carlisle

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.29	0.50	1.00
Draws	42.9%	50.0%	45.5%
Goals scored / match	2.43	0.75	1.82
Goals conceded / match	2.29	1.25	1.91
Total goals / match	4.71	2.00	3.73
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	14.3%	75.0%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Aldershot	Draw	Carlisle	How it works
Strength (Elo)	34.7%	25.0%	40.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	21.1%	21.8%	55.5%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.11–1.95 Model expected goals

57.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals

56.4% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 10.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-110.2%

1-29.9%

0-19.2%

0-28.9%

1-36.4%

0-35.8%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Aldershot	Carlisle	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1494	1559	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	45	-31	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1474	1487	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	51.0%	63.4%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	47.7%	56.9%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1159	994	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	33.3%	31.7%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	82.6%	67.7%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Aldershot	0.58	0.63	0.74	0.58
Carlisle	0.84	1.11	0.47	0.89

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Aldershot	2%	15%	25%	30%	28%
Carlisle	2%	12%	18%	30%	38%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.10 Aldershot at home, 10 matches

1.33 Carlisle away, 9 matches

7d Days of rest for Aldershot

7d Days of rest for Carlisle

— Manager of Aldershot

— Manager of Carlisle

2 Matches for Aldershot in the last 14 days

2 Matches for Carlisle in the last 14 days

6 Points for Aldershot behind the leaders, and 12 above the relegation zone

16 Points for Carlisle behind the leaders, and 2 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Aldershot, the right bar represents Carlisle.

On the ball

20 matches

8.5

shots

13.0

3.5

shots on target

6.83

41.2%

accuracy

52.6%

3.8

corners

5.9

12.0

fouls

10.83

2.17

yellow cards

1.33

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Aldershot	WLDWWWDWDL	1.80	1.60–0.90	1W
Carlisle	LLDDDLWDWD	1.10	1.80–1.80	2L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Aldershot	3	6	10	1	1
Carlisle	7	8	4	1	3

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Aldershot

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Carlisle

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.