Kidderminster

Kidderminster

VS Scheduled Saturday 3 Oct 202615:00

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 12

Sutton

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Kidderminster0–1Yeovil
2026-09-19	26/27	Woking0–0Kidderminster
2026-09-16	26/27	Kidderminster1–0Gateshead
2026-09-11	26/27	Kidderminster2–0Hartlepool
2026-09-05	26/27	Wealdstone1–4Kidderminster
2026-08-31	26/27	Kidderminster1–1Barrow
2026-08-28	26/27	Southend1–3Kidderminster
2026-08-22	26/27	Kidderminster1–1Aldershot

Sutton

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Sutton3–3Forest Green
2026-09-19	26/27	Halifax1–1Sutton
2026-09-15	26/27	Sutton2–1Eastleigh
2026-09-13	26/27	Sutton0–2Scunthorpe
2026-09-12	26/27	Sutton0–2Scunthorpe
2026-09-05	26/27	Barrow3–0Sutton
2026-08-31	26/27	Sutton0–2Wealdstone
2026-08-28	26/27	Gateshead0–1Sutton

Kidderminster Sutton

Wins

50%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

25%

38%

Both teams scored

50%

38%

Clean sheets

38%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Kidderminster

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
6	Kidderminster		Boreham Wood	1
6	Kidderminster		Fylde	2
6	Kidderminster		Harrogate	3
6	Kidderminster		Southend	4
6	Kidderminster	1–1	Aldershot	5	28′ Home
6 · Kidderminster
6	Kidderminster		Worthing	7
6	Kidderminster	0–1	Yeovil	8	74′ Away
6	Kidderminster		Altrincham	9
6	Kidderminster		Forest Green	10
6	Kidderminster		Sutton	11
6	Kidderminster		Halifax	12
6	Kidderminster		Woking	13
6	Kidderminster	1–0	Eastleigh	14	77′ Home
6	Kidderminster		Hornchurch	15
6	Kidderminster		Wealdstone	16
6	Kidderminster	1–1	Barrow	17	16′ Away
6	Kidderminster		Scunthorpe	18
6	Kidderminster		Carlisle	19
6	Kidderminster		Boston Utd	20
6	Kidderminster	2–0	Hartlepool	21	—
6	Kidderminster		Tamworth	22
6	Kidderminster		Solihull	23
6	Kidderminster	1–0	Gateshead	24	27′ Home

Sutton

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood		Sutton	11
2	Fylde		Sutton	11
3	Harrogate		Sutton	11
4	Southend		Sutton	11
5	Aldershot		Sutton	11
6	Kidderminster		Sutton	11
7	Worthing		Sutton	11
8	Yeovil		Sutton	11
9	Altrincham		Sutton	11
10	Forest Green		Sutton	11
11 · Sutton
12	Halifax	1–1	Sutton	11	90+4′ Home
13	Woking	0–3	Sutton	11	27′ Away
14	Eastleigh		Sutton	11
15	Hornchurch		Sutton	11
16	Wealdstone		Sutton	11
17	Barrow	3–0	Sutton	11	18′ Home
18	Scunthorpe		Sutton	11
19	Carlisle		Sutton	11
20	Boston Utd		Sutton	11
21	Hartlepool		Sutton	11
22	Tamworth		Sutton	11
23	Solihull		Sutton	11
24	Gateshead	0–1	Sutton	11	81′ Away

Kidderminster Home Sutton Away

Wins

50%

Over 1.5

50%

75%

Over 2.5

0%

50%

Over 3.5

0%

Both teams scored

33%

25%

Clean sheets

50%

Scores first

67%

50%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Kidderminster

10 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away4 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	1.83	1.75	1.80
Draws	33.3%	25.0%	30.0%
Goals scored / match	1.00	1.75	1.30
Goals conceded / match	0.50	1.25	0.80
Total goals / match	1.50	3.00	2.10
Failed to score	16.7%	50.0%	30.0%
Under 2.5 goals	100.0%	25.0%	70.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 4	75%
Scores first → wins	3 of 4	75%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Sutton

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.43	1.75	1.55
Draws	14.3%	25.0%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	1.14	1.25	1.18
Goals conceded / match	1.57	1.00	1.36
Total goals / match	2.71	2.25	2.55
Failed to score	42.9%	25.0%	36.4%
Under 2.5 goals	57.1%	50.0%	54.5%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	1	1
31–45	0	0
46–60	1	0
61–75	0	0
76–90	3	3

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Kidderminster	Draw	Sutton	How it works
Strength (Elo)	50.1%	22.6%	27.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	39.1%	31.2%	29.6%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.06–0.88 Model expected goals

30.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

38.4% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 15.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-015.2%

0-014.3%

1-113.4%

0-112.6%

2-08.1%

2-17.1%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Kidderminster	Sutton	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1514	1448	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	72	-18	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1505	1505	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	45.7%	46.1%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	47.8%	53.1%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1163	1012	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	45.5%	41.2%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	70.8%	60.0%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Kidderminster	0.40	0.65	0.65	0.50
Sutton	0.47	0.58	0.68	0.89

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Kidderminster	10%	25%	30%	12%	22%
Sutton	2%	15%	28%	32%	22%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.18 Kidderminster at home, 11 matches

1.33 Sutton away, 9 matches

7d Days of rest for Kidderminster

7d Days of rest for Sutton

— Manager of Kidderminster

— Manager of Sutton

2 Matches for Kidderminster in the last 14 days

2 Matches for Sutton in the last 14 days

9 Points for Kidderminster behind the leaders, and 9 above the relegation zone

10 Points for Sutton behind the leaders, and 8 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Kidderminster, the right bar represents Sutton.

On the ball

20 matches

7.17

shots

5.83

3.67

shots on target

2.83

51.2%

accuracy

48.6%

4.2

corners

4.56

12.33

fouls

19.0

2.7

yellow cards

2.32

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Kidderminster	LDWWWDWDWL	1.80	1.30–0.80	1L
Sutton	DDWLLLLWWW	1.40	1.00–1.50	2D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Kidderminster	4	10	6	1	2
Sutton	6	4	9	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Kidderminster

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Sutton

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

Sutton's predictions v Dorking Wanderers manager Marc White BBC Sport 09-10