Carlisle

Carlisle

VS Scheduled Saturday 10 Oct 202612:30

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 13

Kidderminster

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Carlisle2–5Woking
2026-09-19	26/27	Eastleigh1–0Carlisle
2026-09-15	26/27	Carlisle1–1Forest Green
2026-09-13	26/27	Carlisle2–2Southend
2026-09-12	26/27	Carlisle2–2Southend
2026-09-05	26/27	Boreham Wood2–1Carlisle
2026-08-31	26/27	Carlisle4–2Scunthorpe
2026-08-28	26/27	Wealdstone1–1Carlisle

Kidderminster

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Kidderminster0–1Yeovil
2026-09-19	26/27	Woking0–0Kidderminster
2026-09-16	26/27	Kidderminster1–0Gateshead
2026-09-11	26/27	Kidderminster2–0Hartlepool
2026-09-05	26/27	Wealdstone1–4Kidderminster
2026-08-31	26/27	Kidderminster1–1Barrow
2026-08-28	26/27	Southend1–3Kidderminster
2026-08-22	26/27	Kidderminster1–1Aldershot

Carlisle Kidderminster

Wins

12%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

25%

Both teams scored

88%

50%

Clean sheets

0%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Carlisle

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
19	Carlisle		Boreham Wood	1
19	Carlisle		Fylde	2
19	Carlisle		Harrogate	3
19	Carlisle	2–2	Southend	4	4′ Home
19	Carlisle	2–2	Southend	4	—
19	Carlisle		Aldershot	5
19	Carlisle		Kidderminster	6
19	Carlisle	2–3	Worthing	7	42′ Home
19	Carlisle		Yeovil	8
19	Carlisle		Altrincham	9
19	Carlisle	1–1	Forest Green	10	8′ Away
19	Carlisle		Sutton	11
19	Carlisle		Halifax	12
19	Carlisle	2–5	Woking	13	—
19	Carlisle		Eastleigh	14
19	Carlisle	4–1	Hornchurch	15	29′ Home
19	Carlisle		Wealdstone	16
19	Carlisle		Barrow	17
19	Carlisle	4–2	Scunthorpe	18	6′ Home
19 · Carlisle
19	Carlisle		Boston Utd	20
19	Carlisle		Hartlepool	21
19	Carlisle		Tamworth	22
19	Carlisle		Solihull	23
19	Carlisle		Gateshead	24

Kidderminster

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood		Kidderminster	6
2	Fylde		Kidderminster	6
3	Harrogate		Kidderminster	6
4	Southend	1–3	Kidderminster	6	—
5	Aldershot		Kidderminster	6
6 · Kidderminster
7	Worthing		Kidderminster	6
8	Yeovil		Kidderminster	6
9	Altrincham		Kidderminster	6
10	Forest Green		Kidderminster	6
11	Sutton		Kidderminster	6
12	Halifax		Kidderminster	6
13	Woking	0–0	Kidderminster	6	–
14	Eastleigh		Kidderminster	6
15	Hornchurch	3–0	Kidderminster	6	—
16	Wealdstone	1–4	Kidderminster	6	3′ Away
17	Barrow		Kidderminster	6
18	Scunthorpe		Kidderminster	6
19	Carlisle		Kidderminster	6
20	Boston Utd		Kidderminster	6
21	Hartlepool		Kidderminster	6
22	Tamworth		Kidderminster	6
23	Solihull		Kidderminster	6
24	Gateshead		Kidderminster	6

Carlisle Home Kidderminster Away

Wins

29%

50%

Over 1.5

100%

75%

Over 2.5

86%

75%

Over 3.5

86%

50%

Both teams scored

100%

50%

Clean sheets

0%

25%

Scores first

N/A

25%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Carlisle

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.29	0.50	1.00
Draws	42.9%	50.0%	45.5%
Goals scored / match	2.43	0.75	1.82
Goals conceded / match	2.29	1.25	1.91
Total goals / match	4.71	2.00	3.73
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	14.3%	75.0%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 5/7 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Kidderminster

10 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away4 matches	Overall10 matches
Points / match	1.83	1.75	1.80
Draws	33.3%	25.0%	30.0%
Goals scored / match	1.00	1.75	1.30
Goals conceded / match	0.50	1.25	0.80
Total goals / match	1.50	3.00	2.10
Failed to score	16.7%	50.0%	30.0%
Under 2.5 goals	100.0%	25.0%	70.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Carlisle	Draw	Kidderminster	How it works
Strength (Elo)	47.3%	23.5%	29.2%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	43.3%	26.4%	29.9%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.42–1.13 Model expected goals

46.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals

51.0% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 12.5%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-112.5%

1-011.1%

2-18.9%

0-18.8%

2-07.9%

0-07.8%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Carlisle	Kidderminster	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1559	1514	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-31	72	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1487	1505	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	63.4%	45.7%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	56.9%	47.8%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	994	1163	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	31.7%	45.5%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	67.7%	70.8%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Carlisle	0.84	1.11	0.47	0.89
Kidderminster	0.40	0.65	0.65	0.50

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Carlisle	2%	12%	18%	30%	38%
Kidderminster	10%	25%	30%	12%	22%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.73 Carlisle at home, 11 matches

1.33 Kidderminster away, 9 matches

14d Days of rest for Carlisle

14d Days of rest for Kidderminster

— Manager of Carlisle

— Manager of Kidderminster

1 Matches for Carlisle in the last 14 days

1 Matches for Kidderminster in the last 14 days

16 Points for Carlisle behind the leaders, and 2 above the relegation zone

9 Points for Kidderminster behind the leaders, and 9 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Carlisle, the right bar represents Kidderminster.

On the ball

20 matches

13.0

shots

7.17

6.83

shots on target

3.67

52.6%

accuracy

51.2%

5.9

corners

4.2

10.83

fouls

12.33

1.33

yellow cards

2.7

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Carlisle	LLDDDLWDWD	1.10	1.80–1.80	2L
Kidderminster	LDWWWDWDWL	1.80	1.30–0.80	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Carlisle	7	8	4	1	3
Kidderminster	4	10	6	1	2

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Carlisle

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Kidderminster

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.