Forest Green

Forest Green

VS Scheduled Saturday 31 Oct 202612:30

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 16

Harrogate

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Sutton3–3Forest Green
2026-09-19	26/27	Forest Green1–3Boston Utd
2026-09-15	26/27	Carlisle1–1Forest Green
2026-09-13	26/27	Forest Green4–0Gateshead
2026-09-12	26/27	Forest Green4–0Gateshead
2026-09-05	26/27	Hornchurch0–1Forest Green
2026-08-31	26/27	Forest Green1–2Altrincham
2026-08-28	26/27	Fylde2–0Forest Green

Harrogate

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Harrogate4–1Eastleigh
2026-09-19	26/27	Boreham Wood4–1Harrogate
2026-09-15	26/27	Harrogate1–2Fylde
2026-09-13	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-12	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-05	26/27	Scunthorpe0–2Harrogate
2026-08-31	26/27	Harrogate2–1Gateshead
2026-08-28	26/27	Aldershot3–1Harrogate

Forest Green Harrogate

Wins

38%

62%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

88%

Both teams scored

50%

88%

Clean sheets

38%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Forest Green

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
10	Forest Green	0–3	Boreham Wood	1	2′ Away
10	Forest Green		Fylde	2
10	Forest Green		Harrogate	3
10	Forest Green		Southend	4
10	Forest Green		Aldershot	5
10	Forest Green		Kidderminster	6
10	Forest Green		Worthing	7
10	Forest Green		Yeovil	8
10	Forest Green	1–2	Altrincham	9	54′ Away
10 · Forest Green
10	Forest Green		Sutton	11
10	Forest Green	3–2	Halifax	12	9′ Away
10	Forest Green		Woking	13
10	Forest Green		Eastleigh	14
10	Forest Green		Hornchurch	15
10	Forest Green		Wealdstone	16
10	Forest Green		Barrow	17
10	Forest Green		Scunthorpe	18
10	Forest Green		Carlisle	19
10	Forest Green	1–3	Boston Utd	20	1′ Away
10	Forest Green		Hartlepool	21
10	Forest Green		Tamworth	22
10	Forest Green		Solihull	23
10	Forest Green	4–0	Gateshead	24	43′ Home
10	Forest Green	4–0	Gateshead	24	—

Harrogate

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood	4–1	Harrogate	3	9′ Away
2	Fylde		Harrogate	3
3 · Harrogate
4	Southend		Harrogate	3
5	Aldershot	3–1	Harrogate	3	24′ Home
6	Kidderminster		Harrogate	3
7	Worthing		Harrogate	3
8	Yeovil		Harrogate	3
9	Altrincham		Harrogate	3
10	Forest Green		Harrogate	3
11	Sutton		Harrogate	3
12	Halifax		Harrogate	3
13	Woking		Harrogate	3
14	Eastleigh		Harrogate	3
15	Hornchurch		Harrogate	3
16	Wealdstone	1–3	Harrogate	3	28′ Away
17	Barrow		Harrogate	3
18	Scunthorpe	0–2	Harrogate	3	14′ Away
19	Carlisle		Harrogate	3
20	Boston Utd		Harrogate	3
21	Hartlepool		Harrogate	3
22	Tamworth		Harrogate	3
23	Solihull		Harrogate	3
24	Gateshead		Harrogate	3

Forest Green Home Harrogate Away

Wins

50%

Over 1.5

100%

Over 2.5

100%

75%

Over 3.5

67%

75%

Both teams scored

50%

75%

Clean sheets

33%

25%

Scores first

33%

75%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Forest Green

11 matches

Goals & results	Home6 matches	Away5 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.50	1.60	1.55
Draws	0.0%	40.0%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	2.17	1.40	1.82
Goals conceded / match	1.67	1.40	1.55
Total goals / match	3.83	2.80	3.36
Failed to score	16.7%	20.0%	18.2%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	60.0%	27.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	2 of 2	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 4	25%

Scoring order known: 6/6 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Harrogate

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.29	1.50	2.00
Draws	14.3%	0.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.86	1.75	2.45
Goals conceded / match	1.43	2.00	1.64
Total goals / match	4.29	3.75	4.09
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	25.0%	9.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 3	33%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	1	2
31–45	0	4
46–60	3	1
61–75	0	1
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Forest Green	Draw	Harrogate	How it works
Strength (Elo)	40.8%	25.0%	34.2%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	27.9%	20.7%	48.5%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.58–2.15 Model expected goals

69.2% Probability of over 2.5 goals

67.9% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 8.8%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-28.8%

1-18.1%

2-26.9%

2-16.4%

1-36.3%

0-25.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Forest Green	Harrogate	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1543	1551	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-29	25	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1468	1487	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	48.0%	58.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	48.0%	66.7%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	907	929	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	29.2%	35.7%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	61.5%	57.1%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Forest Green	0.58	1.32	0.58	0.79
Harrogate	0.79	1.32	0.68	0.58

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Forest Green	0%	8%	32%	22%	38%
Harrogate	2%	10%	28%	20%	40%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.10 Forest Green at home, 10 matches

2.00 Harrogate away, 8 matches

35d Days of rest for Forest Green

35d Days of rest for Harrogate

— Manager of Forest Green

— Manager of Harrogate

0 Matches for Forest Green in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Harrogate in the last 14 days

10 Points for Forest Green behind the leaders, and 8 above the relegation zone

5 Points for Harrogate behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Forest Green, the right bar represents Harrogate.

On the ball

20 matches

8.0

shots

11.67

4.0

shots on target

7.0

50.0%

accuracy

60.0%

7.0

corners

4.5

12.17

fouls

12.29

2.16

yellow cards

1.26

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Forest Green	DLDWWWLLLW	1.40	1.70–1.50	1D
Harrogate	WLLWWWWLDW	1.90	2.20–1.60	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Forest Green	7	6	6	3	1
Harrogate	7	8	4	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Forest Green

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Harrogate

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.