Hornchurch

Hornchurch

VS Scheduled Saturday 14 Nov 202615:00

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 17

Tamworth

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Altrincham3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-19	26/27	Hornchurch1–0Scunthorpe
2026-09-15	26/27	Worthing1–0Hornchurch
2026-09-13	26/27	Halifax3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-12	26/27	Halifax3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-05	26/27	Hornchurch0–1Forest Green
2026-08-31	26/27	Boston Utd2–3Hornchurch
2026-08-28	26/27	Hornchurch1–0Woking

Tamworth

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Aldershot5–1Tamworth
2026-09-19	26/27	Tamworth2–1Wealdstone
2026-09-15	26/27	Southend3–1Tamworth
2026-09-13	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-12	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-05	26/27	Tamworth2–2Boston Utd
2026-08-31	26/27	Yeovil3–2Tamworth
2026-08-28	26/27	Tamworth3–2Worthing

Hornchurch Tamworth

Wins

38%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

100%

Both teams scored

12%

100%

Clean sheets

25%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Hornchurch

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
15	Hornchurch		Boreham Wood	1
15	Hornchurch		Fylde	2
15	Hornchurch		Harrogate	3
15	Hornchurch		Southend	4
15	Hornchurch		Aldershot	5
15	Hornchurch	3–0	Kidderminster	6	—
15	Hornchurch		Worthing	7
15	Hornchurch		Yeovil	8
15	Hornchurch		Altrincham	9
15	Hornchurch	0–1	Forest Green	10	8′ Away
15	Hornchurch		Sutton	11
15	Hornchurch		Halifax	12
15	Hornchurch	1–0	Woking	13	75′ Home
15	Hornchurch		Eastleigh	14
15 · Hornchurch
15	Hornchurch		Wealdstone	16
15	Hornchurch		Barrow	17
15	Hornchurch	1–0	Scunthorpe	18	70′ Home
15	Hornchurch		Carlisle	19
15	Hornchurch		Boston Utd	20
15	Hornchurch		Hartlepool	21
15	Hornchurch		Tamworth	22
15	Hornchurch		Solihull	23
15	Hornchurch		Gateshead	24

Tamworth

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood	3–3	Tamworth	22	45+1′ Away
2	Fylde		Tamworth	22
3	Harrogate	3–1	Tamworth	22	6′ Away
3	Harrogate	3–1	Tamworth	22	—
4	Southend	3–1	Tamworth	22	60′ Home
5	Aldershot	5–1	Tamworth	22	2′ Home
6	Kidderminster		Tamworth	22
7	Worthing		Tamworth	22
8	Yeovil	3–2	Tamworth	22	17′ Home
9	Altrincham		Tamworth	22
10	Forest Green		Tamworth	22
11	Sutton		Tamworth	22
12	Halifax	4–1	Tamworth	22	18′ Home
13	Woking		Tamworth	22
14	Eastleigh		Tamworth	22
15	Hornchurch		Tamworth	22
16	Wealdstone		Tamworth	22
17	Barrow		Tamworth	22
18	Scunthorpe		Tamworth	22
19	Carlisle		Tamworth	22
20	Boston Utd		Tamworth	22
21	Hartlepool		Tamworth	22
22 · Tamworth
23	Solihull		Tamworth	22
24	Gateshead		Tamworth	22

Hornchurch Home Tamworth Away

Wins

75%

0%

Over 1.5

25%

100%

Over 2.5

25%

100%

Over 3.5

0%

100%

Both teams scored

0%

100%

Clean sheets

75%

0%

Scores first

75%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Hornchurch

11 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away7 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.25	0.86	1.36
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	1.25	0.86	1.00
Goals conceded / match	0.25	2.43	1.64
Total goals / match	1.50	3.29	2.64
Failed to score	25.0%	57.1%	45.5%
Under 2.5 goals	75.0%	14.3%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 3	33%
Scores first → wins	3 of 3	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Tamworth

11 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away7 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.75	0.14	0.73
Draws	25.0%	14.3%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.43	1.64
Goals conceded / match	1.75	3.43	2.82
Total goals / match	3.75	4.86	4.45
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 6/7 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Hornchurch	Draw	Tamworth	How it works
Strength (Elo)	46.0%	23.9%	30.1%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	22.7%	21.0%	54.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.27–2.08 Model expected goals

62.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

61.3% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 9.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-29.6%

1-19.3%

0-27.6%

0-17.3%

1-36.7%

2-26.1%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Hornchurch	Tamworth	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1475	1441	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-39	-60	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1513	1524	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	45.5%	56.9%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	48.4%	53.4%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1083	837	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	33.3%	30.8%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	75.0%	52.9%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Hornchurch	0.40	0.70	0.70	0.80
Tamworth	0.58	1.11	1.11	0.84

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Hornchurch	0%	36%	0%	46%	18%
Tamworth	5%	12%	12%	18%	52%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.25 Hornchurch at home, 4 matches

0.55 Tamworth away, 11 matches

49d Days of rest for Hornchurch

49d Days of rest for Tamworth

— Manager of Hornchurch

— Manager of Tamworth

0 Matches for Hornchurch in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Tamworth in the last 14 days

12 Points for Hornchurch behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

19 Points for Tamworth behind the leaders, and -1 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Hornchurch, the right bar represents Tamworth.

On the ball

20 matches

9.17

shots

13.0

5.0

shots on target

6.5

54.5%

accuracy

50.0%

4.5

corners

5.3

11.33

fouls

12.0

2.0

yellow cards

1.82

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Hornchurch	LWLLLLWWLW	1.20	0.80–1.80	1L
Tamworth	LWLLLDLWLL	0.70	1.50–2.80	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Hornchurch	1	3	6	1	0
Tamworth	2	10	7	2	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Hornchurch

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Tamworth

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.