Wealdstone

Wealdstone

VS Scheduled Saturday 21 Nov 202615:00

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 18

Hornchurch

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Wealdstone4–0Gateshead
2026-09-19	26/27	Tamworth2–1Wealdstone
2026-09-15	26/27	Wealdstone0–1Halifax
2026-09-13	26/27	Boston Utd1–3Wealdstone
2026-09-12	26/27	Boston Utd1–3Wealdstone
2026-09-05	26/27	Wealdstone1–4Kidderminster
2026-08-31	26/27	Sutton0–2Wealdstone
2026-08-28	26/27	Wealdstone1–1Carlisle

Hornchurch

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Altrincham3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-19	26/27	Hornchurch1–0Scunthorpe
2026-09-15	26/27	Worthing1–0Hornchurch
2026-09-13	26/27	Halifax3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-12	26/27	Halifax3–0Hornchurch
2026-09-05	26/27	Hornchurch0–1Forest Green
2026-08-31	26/27	Boston Utd2–3Hornchurch
2026-08-28	26/27	Hornchurch1–0Woking

Wealdstone Hornchurch

Wins

50%

38%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

50%

Both teams scored

62%

12%

Clean sheets

25%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Wealdstone

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
16	Wealdstone		Boreham Wood	1
16	Wealdstone		Fylde	2
16	Wealdstone	1–3	Harrogate	3	28′ Away
16	Wealdstone		Southend	4
16	Wealdstone		Aldershot	5
16	Wealdstone	1–4	Kidderminster	6	3′ Away
16	Wealdstone		Worthing	7
16	Wealdstone		Yeovil	8
16	Wealdstone		Altrincham	9
16	Wealdstone		Forest Green	10
16	Wealdstone		Sutton	11
16	Wealdstone	0–1	Halifax	12	58′ Away
16	Wealdstone		Woking	13
16	Wealdstone		Eastleigh	14
16	Wealdstone		Hornchurch	15
16 · Wealdstone
16	Wealdstone		Barrow	17
16	Wealdstone		Scunthorpe	18
16	Wealdstone	1–1	Carlisle	19	34′ Away
16	Wealdstone		Boston Utd	20
16	Wealdstone		Hartlepool	21
16	Wealdstone		Tamworth	22
16	Wealdstone		Solihull	23
16	Wealdstone	4–0	Gateshead	24	22′ Home

Hornchurch

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood		Hornchurch	15
2	Fylde		Hornchurch	15
3	Harrogate		Hornchurch	15
4	Southend		Hornchurch	15
5	Aldershot		Hornchurch	15
6	Kidderminster		Hornchurch	15
7	Worthing	1–0	Hornchurch	15	6′ Home
8	Yeovil		Hornchurch	15
9	Altrincham	3–0	Hornchurch	15	45+3′ Home
10	Forest Green		Hornchurch	15
11	Sutton		Hornchurch	15
12	Halifax	3–0	Hornchurch	15	45′ Home
12	Halifax	3–0	Hornchurch	15	—
13	Woking		Hornchurch	15
14	Eastleigh		Hornchurch	15
15 · Hornchurch
16	Wealdstone		Hornchurch	15
17	Barrow	1–2	Hornchurch	15	57′ Away
18	Scunthorpe		Hornchurch	15
19	Carlisle	4–1	Hornchurch	15	29′ Home
20	Boston Utd	2–3	Hornchurch	15	—
21	Hartlepool		Hornchurch	15
22	Tamworth		Hornchurch	15
23	Solihull		Hornchurch	15
24	Gateshead		Hornchurch	15

Wealdstone Home Hornchurch Away

Wins

20%

29%

Over 1.5

80%

86%

Over 2.5

60%

86%

Over 3.5

60%

29%

Both teams scored

60%

43%

Clean sheets

20%

0%

Scores first

20%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Wealdstone

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	0.80	1.67	1.27
Draws	20.0%	16.7%	18.2%
Goals scored / match	1.40	1.83	1.64
Goals conceded / match	1.80	1.17	1.45
Total goals / match	3.20	3.00	3.09
Failed to score	20.0%	16.7%	18.2%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	33.3%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 4	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	2	1
31–45	2	1
46–60	1	4
61–75	0	0
76–90	2	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Hornchurch

11 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away7 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.25	0.86	1.36
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	1.25	0.86	1.00
Goals conceded / match	0.25	2.43	1.64
Total goals / match	1.50	3.29	2.64
Failed to score	25.0%	57.1%	45.5%
Under 2.5 goals	75.0%	14.3%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 6/7 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Wealdstone	Draw	Hornchurch	How it works
Strength (Elo)	42.6%	24.7%	32.7%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	48.8%	23.8%	26.4%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.71–1.19 Model expected goals

54.6% Probability of over 2.5 goals

56.4% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 11.2%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-111.2%

2-19.6%

1-09.4%

2-08.0%

1-26.7%

0-16.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Wealdstone	Hornchurch	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1482	1475	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	11	-39	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1518	1513	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	46.1%	45.5%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	38.6%	48.4%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1004	1083	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	31.8%	33.3%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	68.6%	75.0%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Wealdstone	0.74	0.84	0.58	1.00
Hornchurch	0.40	0.70	0.70	0.80

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Wealdstone	0%	15%	28%	18%	40%
Hornchurch	0%	36%	0%	46%	18%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.20 Wealdstone at home, 10 matches

0.86 Hornchurch away, 7 matches

56d Days of rest for Wealdstone

56d Days of rest for Hornchurch

— Manager of Wealdstone

— Manager of Hornchurch

0 Matches for Wealdstone in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Hornchurch in the last 14 days

13 Points for Wealdstone behind the leaders, and 5 above the relegation zone

12 Points for Hornchurch behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Wealdstone, the right bar represents Hornchurch.

On the ball

20 matches

8.83

shots

9.17

3.67

shots on target

5.0

41.5%

accuracy

54.5%

4.67

corners

4.5

15.0

fouls

11.33

1.68

yellow cards

2.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Wealdstone	WLLWWLWDLL	1.30	1.60–1.40	1W
Hornchurch	LWLLLLWWLW	1.20	0.80–1.80	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Wealdstone	5	8	6	0	1
Hornchurch	1	3	6	1	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Wealdstone

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Hornchurch

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.