Worthing

Worthing

VS Scheduled Saturday 21 Nov 202615:00

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 18

Harrogate

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Worthing2–1Halifax
2026-09-19	26/27	Hartlepool1–3Worthing
2026-09-15	26/27	Worthing1–0Hornchurch
2026-09-13	26/27	Worthing2–2Barrow
2026-09-12	26/27	Worthing2–2Barrow
2026-09-05	26/27	Fylde2–2Worthing
2026-08-31	26/27	Worthing2–3Boreham Wood
2026-08-28	26/27	Tamworth3–2Worthing

Harrogate

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Harrogate4–1Eastleigh
2026-09-19	26/27	Boreham Wood4–1Harrogate
2026-09-15	26/27	Harrogate1–2Fylde
2026-09-13	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-12	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-05	26/27	Scunthorpe0–2Harrogate
2026-08-31	26/27	Harrogate2–1Gateshead
2026-08-28	26/27	Aldershot3–1Harrogate

Worthing Harrogate

Wins

38%

62%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

Both teams scored

88%

Clean sheets

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Worthing

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
7	Worthing	2–3	Boreham Wood	1	22′ Home
7	Worthing		Fylde	2
7	Worthing		Harrogate	3
7	Worthing		Southend	4
7	Worthing		Aldershot	5
7	Worthing		Kidderminster	6
7 · Worthing
7	Worthing		Yeovil	8
7	Worthing		Altrincham	9
7	Worthing	1–2	Forest Green	10	2′ Home
7	Worthing		Sutton	11
7	Worthing	2–1	Halifax	12	7′ Home
7	Worthing		Woking	13
7	Worthing		Eastleigh	14
7	Worthing	1–0	Hornchurch	15	6′ Home
7	Worthing	1–0	Wealdstone	16	44′ Home
7	Worthing	2–2	Barrow	17	20′ Away
7	Worthing	2–2	Barrow	17	—
7	Worthing		Scunthorpe	18
7	Worthing		Carlisle	19
7	Worthing		Boston Utd	20
7	Worthing		Hartlepool	21
7	Worthing		Tamworth	22
7	Worthing		Solihull	23
7	Worthing		Gateshead	24

Harrogate

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood	4–1	Harrogate	3	9′ Away
2	Fylde		Harrogate	3
3 · Harrogate
4	Southend		Harrogate	3
5	Aldershot	3–1	Harrogate	3	24′ Home
6	Kidderminster		Harrogate	3
7	Worthing		Harrogate	3
8	Yeovil		Harrogate	3
9	Altrincham		Harrogate	3
10	Forest Green		Harrogate	3
11	Sutton		Harrogate	3
12	Halifax		Harrogate	3
13	Woking		Harrogate	3
14	Eastleigh		Harrogate	3
15	Hornchurch		Harrogate	3
16	Wealdstone	1–3	Harrogate	3	28′ Away
17	Barrow		Harrogate	3
18	Scunthorpe	0–2	Harrogate	3	14′ Away
19	Carlisle		Harrogate	3
20	Boston Utd		Harrogate	3
21	Hartlepool		Harrogate	3
22	Tamworth		Harrogate	3
23	Solihull		Harrogate	3
24	Gateshead		Harrogate	3

Worthing Home Harrogate Away

Wins

43%

50%

Over 1.5

71%

100%

Over 2.5

71%

75%

Over 3.5

43%

75%

Both teams scored

71%

75%

Clean sheets

29%

25%

Scores first

N/A

75%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Worthing

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.57	1.75	1.64
Draws	28.6%	25.0%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	1.57	2.50	1.91
Goals conceded / match	1.43	2.00	1.64
Total goals / match	3.00	4.50	3.55
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	28.6%	0.0%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 6/7 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Harrogate

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.29	1.50	2.00
Draws	14.3%	0.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.86	1.75	2.45
Goals conceded / match	1.43	2.00	1.64
Total goals / match	4.29	3.75	4.09
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	25.0%	9.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 3	33%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	1	2
31–45	0	4
46–60	3	1
61–75	0	1
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Worthing	Draw	Harrogate	How it works
Strength (Elo)	39.0%	25.2%	35.8%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	19.3%	17.3%	57.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.51–2.71 Model expected goals

73.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals

67.9% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 8.1%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-28.1%

1-37.4%

2-26.2%

1-16.0%

2-35.6%

0-25.4%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Worthing	Harrogate	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1527	1551	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	13	25	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1519	1487	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	47.2%	58.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	50.0%	66.7%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	970	929	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	33.3%	35.7%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	63.6%	57.1%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Worthing	0.90	1.00	0.40	1.20
Harrogate	0.79	1.32	0.68	0.58

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Worthing	0%	18%	0%	18%	64%
Harrogate	2%	10%	28%	20%	40%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.57 Worthing at home, 7 matches

2.00 Harrogate away, 8 matches

56d Days of rest for Worthing

56d Days of rest for Harrogate

— Manager of Worthing

— Manager of Harrogate

0 Matches for Worthing in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Harrogate in the last 14 days

9 Points for Worthing behind the leaders, and 9 above the relegation zone

5 Points for Harrogate behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Worthing, the right bar represents Harrogate.

On the ball

20 matches

9.67

shots

11.67

5.5

shots on target

7.0

56.9%

accuracy

60.0%

4.3

corners

4.5

11.33

fouls

12.29

1.56

yellow cards

1.26

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Worthing	WWWDDDLLWL	1.50	1.80–1.60	3W
Harrogate	WLLWWWWLDW	1.90	2.20–1.60	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Worthing	8	0	2	1	4
Harrogate	7	8	4	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Worthing

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Harrogate

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.