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VS Scheduled Saturday 21 Nov 202615:00

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 18

Carlisle

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Southend2–4Barrow
2026-09-19	26/27	Barrow1–0Aldershot
2026-09-15	26/27	Solihull1–0Barrow
2026-09-13	26/27	Worthing2–2Barrow
2026-09-12	26/27	Worthing2–2Barrow
2026-09-05	26/27	Barrow3–0Sutton
2026-08-31	26/27	Kidderminster1–1Barrow
2026-08-28	26/27	Barrow1–2Yeovil

Carlisle

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Carlisle2–5Woking
2026-09-19	26/27	Eastleigh1–0Carlisle
2026-09-15	26/27	Carlisle1–1Forest Green
2026-09-13	26/27	Carlisle2–2Southend
2026-09-12	26/27	Carlisle2–2Southend
2026-09-05	26/27	Boreham Wood2–1Carlisle
2026-08-31	26/27	Carlisle4–2Scunthorpe
2026-08-28	26/27	Wealdstone1–1Carlisle

Barrow Carlisle

Wins

38%

12%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

Both teams scored

62%

88%

Clean sheets

25%

0%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Barrow

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
17	Barrow		Boreham Wood	1
17	Barrow		Fylde	2
17	Barrow		Harrogate	3
17	Barrow		Southend	4
17	Barrow	1–0	Aldershot	5	64′ Home
17	Barrow		Kidderminster	6
17	Barrow		Worthing	7
17	Barrow	1–2	Yeovil	8	75′ Home
17	Barrow		Altrincham	9
17	Barrow		Forest Green	10
17	Barrow	3–0	Sutton	11	18′ Home
17	Barrow		Halifax	12
17	Barrow		Woking	13
17	Barrow		Eastleigh	14
17	Barrow	1–2	Hornchurch	15	57′ Away
17	Barrow		Wealdstone	16
17 · Barrow
17	Barrow		Scunthorpe	18
17	Barrow		Carlisle	19
17	Barrow		Boston Utd	20
17	Barrow		Hartlepool	21
17	Barrow		Tamworth	22
17	Barrow		Solihull	23
17	Barrow		Gateshead	24

Carlisle

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood	2–1	Carlisle	19	—
2	Fylde		Carlisle	19
3	Harrogate		Carlisle	19
4	Southend		Carlisle	19
5	Aldershot		Carlisle	19
6	Kidderminster		Carlisle	19
7	Worthing		Carlisle	19
8	Yeovil	1–1	Carlisle	19	17′ Home
9	Altrincham		Carlisle	19
10	Forest Green		Carlisle	19
11	Sutton		Carlisle	19
12	Halifax		Carlisle	19
13	Woking		Carlisle	19
14	Eastleigh	1–0	Carlisle	19	44′ Home
15	Hornchurch		Carlisle	19
16	Wealdstone	1–1	Carlisle	19	34′ Away
17	Barrow		Carlisle	19
18	Scunthorpe		Carlisle	19
19 · Carlisle
20	Boston Utd		Carlisle	19
21	Hartlepool		Carlisle	19
22	Tamworth		Carlisle	19
23	Solihull		Carlisle	19
24	Gateshead		Carlisle	19

Barrow Home Carlisle Away

Wins

50%

0%

Over 1.5

75%

Over 2.5

75%

25%

Over 3.5

0%

Both teams scored

50%

75%

Clean sheets

50%

0%

Scores first

75%

N/A

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Barrow

11 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away7 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.50	1.00	1.18
Draws	0.0%	57.1%	36.4%
Goals scored / match	1.50	1.57	1.55
Goals conceded / match	1.00	1.71	1.45
Total goals / match	2.50	3.29	3.00
Failed to score	0.0%	28.6%	18.2%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	42.9%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 3	33%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	1	0
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	1
61–75	2	1
76–90	3	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Carlisle

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.29	0.50	1.00
Draws	42.9%	50.0%	45.5%
Goals scored / match	2.43	0.75	1.82
Goals conceded / match	2.29	1.25	1.91
Total goals / match	4.71	2.00	3.73
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	9.1%
Under 2.5 goals	14.3%	75.0%	36.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Barrow	Draw	Carlisle	How it works
Strength (Elo)	37.2%	25.2%	37.6%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	25.1%	22.6%	51.0%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.24–1.87 Model expected goals

58.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

59.2% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 10.3%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-110.3%

1-29.7%

0-18.3%

0-27.8%

2-16.4%

1-36.0%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Barrow	Carlisle	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1519	1559	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	17	-31	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1511	1487	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	60.2%	63.4%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	59.2%	56.9%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	826	994	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	27.6%	31.7%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	55.0%	67.7%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Barrow	0.58	0.79	0.32	0.89
Carlisle	0.84	1.11	0.47	0.89

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Barrow	2%	18%	20%	30%	30%
Carlisle	2%	12%	18%	30%	38%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.00 Barrow at home, 9 matches

1.33 Carlisle away, 9 matches

56d Days of rest for Barrow

56d Days of rest for Carlisle

— Manager of Barrow

— Manager of Carlisle

0 Matches for Barrow in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Carlisle in the last 14 days

14 Points for Barrow behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

16 Points for Carlisle behind the leaders, and 2 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Barrow, the right bar represents Carlisle.

On the ball

20 matches

8.83

shots

13.0

4.83

shots on target

6.83

54.7%

accuracy

52.6%

6.2

corners

5.9

12.17

fouls

10.83

2.16

yellow cards

1.33

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Barrow	WWLDDWDLDL	1.30	1.70–1.40	2W
Carlisle	LLDDDLWDWD	1.10	1.80–1.80	2L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Barrow	6	11	2	0	3
Carlisle	7	8	4	1	3

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Barrow

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Carlisle

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.