Southend

Southend

VS Scheduled Saturday 5 Dec 202615:00

England 26/27 National League · Matchday 21

Harrogate

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Southend2–4Barrow
2026-09-19	26/27	Gateshead1–6Southend
2026-09-15	26/27	Southend3–1Tamworth
2026-09-13	26/27	Carlisle2–2Southend
2026-09-12	26/27	Carlisle2–2Southend
2026-09-05	26/27	Southend3–2Yeovil
2026-08-31	26/27	Woking1–1Southend
2026-08-28	26/27	Southend1–3Kidderminster

Harrogate

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Harrogate4–1Eastleigh
2026-09-19	26/27	Boreham Wood4–1Harrogate
2026-09-15	26/27	Harrogate1–2Fylde
2026-09-13	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-12	26/27	Harrogate3–1Tamworth
2026-09-05	26/27	Scunthorpe0–2Harrogate
2026-08-31	26/27	Harrogate2–1Gateshead
2026-08-28	26/27	Aldershot3–1Harrogate

Southend Harrogate

Wins

38%

62%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

Both teams scored

100%

88%

Clean sheets

0%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Southend

Home · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
4	Southend		Boreham Wood	1
4	Southend		Fylde	2
4	Southend		Harrogate	3
4 · Southend
4	Southend		Aldershot	5
4	Southend	1–3	Kidderminster	6	—
4	Southend		Worthing	7
4	Southend	3–2	Yeovil	8	25′ Away
4	Southend		Altrincham	9
4	Southend		Forest Green	10
4	Southend		Sutton	11
4	Southend		Halifax	12
4	Southend		Woking	13
4	Southend		Eastleigh	14
4	Southend		Hornchurch	15
4	Southend		Wealdstone	16
4	Southend	2–4	Barrow	17	—
4	Southend	1–0	Scunthorpe	18	23′ Home
4	Southend		Carlisle	19
4	Southend		Boston Utd	20
4	Southend		Hartlepool	21
4	Southend	3–1	Tamworth	22	60′ Home
4	Southend		Solihull	23
4	Southend		Gateshead	24

Harrogate

Away · National League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Boreham Wood	4–1	Harrogate	3	9′ Away
2	Fylde		Harrogate	3
3 · Harrogate
4	Southend		Harrogate	3
5	Aldershot	3–1	Harrogate	3	24′ Home
6	Kidderminster		Harrogate	3
7	Worthing		Harrogate	3
8	Yeovil		Harrogate	3
9	Altrincham		Harrogate	3
10	Forest Green		Harrogate	3
11	Sutton		Harrogate	3
12	Halifax		Harrogate	3
13	Woking		Harrogate	3
14	Eastleigh		Harrogate	3
15	Hornchurch		Harrogate	3
16	Wealdstone	1–3	Harrogate	3	28′ Away
17	Barrow		Harrogate	3
18	Scunthorpe	0–2	Harrogate	3	14′ Away
19	Carlisle		Harrogate	3
20	Boston Utd		Harrogate	3
21	Hartlepool		Harrogate	3
22	Tamworth		Harrogate	3
23	Solihull		Harrogate	3
24	Gateshead		Harrogate	3

Southend Home Harrogate Away

Wins

60%

50%

Over 1.5

80%

100%

Over 2.5

80%

75%

Over 3.5

80%

75%

Both teams scored

80%

75%

Clean sheets

20%

25%

Scores first

N/A

75%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

National League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Southend

11 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away6 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	1.80	2.00	1.91
Draws	0.0%	50.0%	27.3%
Goals scored / match	2.00	2.83	2.45
Goals conceded / match	2.00	1.33	1.64
Total goals / match	4.00	4.17	4.09
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	20.0%	16.7%	18.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 4/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Harrogate

11 matches

Goals & results	Home7 matches	Away4 matches	Overall11 matches
Points / match	2.29	1.50	2.00
Draws	14.3%	0.0%	9.1%
Goals scored / match	2.86	1.75	2.45
Goals conceded / match	1.43	2.00	1.64
Total goals / match	4.29	3.75	4.09
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	25.0%	9.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 3	33%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	1	2
31–45	0	4
46–60	3	1
61–75	0	1
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Southend	Draw	Harrogate	How it works
Strength (Elo)	47.9%	23.3%	28.8%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	30.4%	19.4%	45.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.94–2.40 Model expected goals

75.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

73.5% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 7.3%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-27.3%

2-27.1%

1-16.1%

2-15.9%

1-35.8%

2-35.6%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Southend	Harrogate	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1600	1551	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-3	25	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1487	1487	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	63.6%	58.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	63.8%	66.7%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	943	929	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	32.4%	35.7%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	61.9%	57.1%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Southend	1.21	1.26	0.42	1.00
Harrogate	0.79	1.32	0.68	0.58

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Southend	2%	15%	20%	20%	42%
Harrogate	2%	10%	28%	20%	40%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.00 Southend at home, 10 matches

2.00 Harrogate away, 8 matches

70d Days of rest for Southend

70d Days of rest for Harrogate

— Manager of Southend

— Manager of Harrogate

0 Matches for Southend in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Harrogate in the last 14 days

6 Points for Southend behind the leaders, and 12 above the relegation zone

5 Points for Harrogate behind the leaders, and 13 above the relegation zone

2.88 League goals per match

24.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Southend, the right bar represents Harrogate.

On the ball

20 matches

11.33

shots

11.67

6.17

shots on target

7.0

54.4%

accuracy

60.0%

6.1

corners

4.5

11.0

fouls

12.29

1.88

yellow cards

1.26

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Southend	LWWDDWDLWW	1.80	2.40–1.70	1L
Harrogate	WLLWWWWLDW	1.90	2.20–1.60	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Southend	10	6	3	1	2
Harrogate	7	8	4	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Southend

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Harrogate

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.