Arezzo

Arezzo

VS Scheduled Saturday 21 Nov 202600:00

Italy 26/27 Serie B · Matchday 12

Padova

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Arezzo1–4Sudtirol
2026-09-11	26/27	Empoli0–1Arezzo
2026-09-06	26/27	Verona5–0Arezzo
2026-08-30	26/27	Arezzo2–3Palermo
2026-08-22	26/27	Avellino1–2Arezzo

Padova

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Palermo2–1Padova
2026-09-13	26/27	Padova1–0Ascoli
2026-09-12	26/27	Padova1–0Ascoli
2026-09-06	26/27	Cremonese3–1Padova
2026-08-29	26/27	Padova1–1Verona
2026-08-23	26/27	Pisa0–1Padova
2026-05-08	25/26	Cesena3–4Padova
2026-05-01	25/26	Padova1–0Pescara

Arezzo Padova

Wins

40%

62%

Over 2.5 goals

80%

38%

Both teams scored

60%

50%

Clean sheets

20%

50%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Arezzo

Home · Serie B

Home			Away		1st goal
17	Arezzo		Mantova	1
17	Arezzo	2–3	Palermo	2	21′ Away
17	Arezzo	1–4	Sudtirol	3	45+1′ Away
17	Arezzo		Modena	4
17	Arezzo		Ascoli	5
17	Arezzo		Padova	6
17	Arezzo		Cesena	7
17	Arezzo		Avellino	8
17	Arezzo		Verona	9
17	Arezzo		Benevento	10
17	Arezzo		Pisa	11
17	Arezzo		Cremonese	12
17	Arezzo		Empoli	13
17	Arezzo		Vicenza	14
17	Arezzo		Catanzaro	15
17	Arezzo		Juve Stabia	16
17 · Arezzo
17	Arezzo		Virtus Entella	18
17	Arezzo		Sampdoria	19
17	Arezzo		Carrarese	20

Padova

Away · Serie B

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Mantova		Padova	6
2	Palermo	2–1	Padova	6	7′ Away
3	Sudtirol		Padova	6
4	Modena		Padova	6
5	Ascoli		Padova	6
6 · Padova
7	Cesena		Padova	6
8	Avellino		Padova	6
9	Verona		Padova	6
10	Benevento		Padova	6
11	Pisa	0–1	Padova	6	63′ Away
12	Cremonese	3–1	Padova	6	1′ Home
13	Empoli		Padova	6
14	Vicenza		Padova	6
15	Catanzaro		Padova	6
16	Juve Stabia		Padova	6
17	Arezzo		Padova	6
18	Virtus Entella		Padova	6
19	Sampdoria		Padova	6
20	Carrarese		Padova	6

Arezzo Home Padova Away

Wins

0%

33%

Over 1.5

100%

67%

Over 2.5

100%

67%

Over 3.5

100%

33%

Both teams scored

100%

67%

Clean sheets

0%

33%

Scores first

0%

67%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Serie B · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Arezzo

5 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away3 matches	Overall5 matches
Points / match	0.00	2.00	1.20
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	1.50	1.00	1.20
Goals conceded / match	3.50	2.00	2.60
Total goals / match	5.00	3.00	3.80
Failed to score	0.0%	33.3%	20.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	33.3%	20.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 0	—
Scores first → wins	0 of 0	—
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 2/2 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	1
31–45	0	1
46–60	1	2
61–75	1	1
76–90	1	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Padova

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	2.33	1.00	1.67
Draws	33.3%	0.0%	16.7%
Goals scored / match	1.00	1.00	1.00
Goals conceded / match	0.33	1.67	1.00
Total goals / match	1.33	2.67	2.00
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	100.0%	33.3%	66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 2	0%
Scores first → wins	1 of 2	50%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	2
16–30	0	0
31–45	1	1
46–60	0	1
61–75	1	0
76–90	0	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Arezzo	Draw	Padova	How it works
Strength (Elo)	37.3%	32.3%	30.4%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	15.1%	18.1%	63.3%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.05–2.37 Model expected goals

63.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals

56.8% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 9.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-29.6%

0-29.2%

1-18.1%

0-17.7%

1-37.6%

0-37.2%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Arezzo	Padova	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1475	1487	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-36	42	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1507	1510	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	44.3%	39.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	32.1%	37.2%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	971	1062	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	44.4%	30.9%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	52.6%	75.3%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Arezzo	0.00	1.20	0.60	2.00
Padova	0.53	0.47	0.68	0.63

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Arezzo	0%	20%	0%	20%	60%
Padova	0%	40%	22%	18%	20%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

0.00 Arezzo at home, 2 matches

0.90 Padova away, 10 matches

62d Days of rest for Arezzo

63d Days of rest for Padova

— Manager of Arezzo

— Manager of Padova

0 Matches for Arezzo in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Padova in the last 14 days

8 Points for Arezzo behind the leaders, and 0 above the relegation zone

4 Points for Padova behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

2.52 League goals per match

32.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Arezzo, the right bar represents Padova.

On the ball

20 matches

11.67

shots

10.65

3.0

shots on target

3.24

25.7%

accuracy

30.4%

4.8

corners

4.42

12.0

fouls

15.26

1.4

yellow cards

2.26

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Arezzo	LWLLW	1.20	1.20–2.60	1L
Padova	LWWLDWWWLW	1.90	1.20–1.00	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Arezzo	0	2	3	1	0
Padova	2	12	5	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Arezzo

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Padova

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.