Cesena

Cesena

VS Scheduled Saturday 5 Dec 202600:00

Italy 26/27 Serie B · Matchday 15

Carrarese

Head-to-head overview

4 meetings

CesenaWins: 2
Draws25.0% of meetings: 1
CarrareseWins: 1

Goals per match: 2.00
Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%
Both teams scored: 50.0%

Date	Season	Match
2026-05-01	25/26	Carrarese0–0Cesena
2025-10-28	25/26	Cesena2–1Carrarese
2024-12-29	24/25	Carrarese2–0Cesena
2024-08-18	24/25	Cesena2–1Carrarese

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-18	26/27	Juve Stabia1–1Cesena
2026-09-13	26/27	Cesena2–2Cremonese
2026-09-12	26/27	Cesena2–2Cremonese
2026-09-06	26/27	Cesena1–1Mantova
2026-08-29	26/27	Virtus Entella1–2Cesena
2026-08-23	26/27	Cesena1–1Sampdoria
2026-05-08	25/26	Cesena3–4Padova
2026-05-01	25/26	Carrarese0–0Cesena

Carrarese

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Carrarese0–1Benevento
2026-09-13	26/27	Catanzaro1–0Carrarese
2026-09-12	26/27	Catanzaro1–0Carrarese
2026-09-05	26/27	Carrarese0–1Empoli
2026-08-29	26/27	Ascoli1–1Carrarese
2026-08-22	26/27	Carrarese1–2Mantova
2026-05-08	25/26	Virtus Entella2–1Carrarese
2026-05-01	25/26	Carrarese0–0Cesena

Cesena Carrarese

Wins

12%

0%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

25%

Both teams scored

88%

38%

Clean sheets

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Cesena

Home · Serie B

Home			Away		1st goal
7	Cesena	1–1	Mantova	1	31′ Away
7	Cesena		Palermo	2
7	Cesena		Sudtirol	3
7	Cesena		Modena	4
7	Cesena		Ascoli	5
7	Cesena		Padova	6
7 · Cesena
7	Cesena		Avellino	8
7	Cesena		Verona	9
7	Cesena		Benevento	10
7	Cesena		Pisa	11
7	Cesena	2–2	Cremonese	12	22′ Home
7	Cesena	2–2	Cremonese	12	—
7	Cesena		Empoli	13
7	Cesena		Vicenza	14
7	Cesena		Catanzaro	15
7	Cesena		Juve Stabia	16
7	Cesena		Arezzo	17
7	Cesena		Virtus Entella	18
7	Cesena	1–1	Sampdoria	19	17′ Home
7	Cesena		Carrarese	20

Carrarese

Away · Serie B

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Mantova		Carrarese	20
2	Palermo		Carrarese	20
3	Sudtirol		Carrarese	20
4	Modena		Carrarese	20
5	Ascoli	1–1	Carrarese	20	51′ Away
6	Padova		Carrarese	20
7	Cesena		Carrarese	20
8	Avellino		Carrarese	20
9	Verona		Carrarese	20
10	Benevento		Carrarese	20
11	Pisa		Carrarese	20
12	Cremonese		Carrarese	20
13	Empoli		Carrarese	20
14	Vicenza		Carrarese	20
15	Catanzaro	1–0	Carrarese	20	83′ Home
15	Catanzaro	1–0	Carrarese	20	—
16	Juve Stabia		Carrarese	20
17	Arezzo		Carrarese	20
18	Virtus Entella		Carrarese	20
19	Sampdoria		Carrarese	20
20 · Carrarese

Cesena Home Carrarese Away

Wins

0%

Over 1.5

100%

33%

Over 2.5

50%

0%

Over 3.5

50%

0%

Both teams scored

100%

33%

Clean sheets

0%

Scores first

N/A

33%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Serie B · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Cesena

6 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away2 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	1.00	2.00	1.33
Draws	100.0%	50.0%	83.3%
Goals scored / match	1.50	1.50	1.50
Goals conceded / match	1.50	1.00	1.33
Total goals / match	3.00	2.50	2.83
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 3/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Carrarese

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	0.00	0.33	0.17
Draws	0.0%	33.3%	16.7%
Goals scored / match	0.33	0.33	0.33
Goals conceded / match	1.33	1.00	1.17
Total goals / match	1.67	1.33	1.50
Failed to score	66.7%	66.7%	66.7%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	100.0%	83.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Cesena	Draw	Carrarese	How it works
Strength (Elo)	43.3%	30.4%	26.4%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	27.0%	27.0%	45.7%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.00–1.40 Model expected goals

42.7% Probability of over 2.5 goals

47.4% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 12.7%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-112.7%

0-112.7%

1-09.1%

0-09.1%

1-28.9%

0-28.8%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Cesena	Carrarese	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1470	1431	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	10	-58	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1519	1496	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	45.8%	50.3%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	47.6%	49.2%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	866	932	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	24.3%	28.6%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	62.3%	64.6%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Cesena	0.58	0.47	0.79	0.89
Carrarese	0.21	0.74	0.58	0.74

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Cesena	8%	12%	30%	20%	30%
Carrarese	12%	20%	20%	22%	25%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

0.83 Cesena at home, 12 matches

0.60 Carrarese away, 10 matches

78d Days of rest for Cesena

77d Days of rest for Carrarese

— Manager of Cesena

— Manager of Carrarese

0 Matches for Cesena in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Carrarese in the last 14 days

6 Points for Cesena behind the leaders, and 2 above the relegation zone

13 Points for Carrarese behind the leaders, and -5 above the relegation zone

2.52 League goals per match

32.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Cesena, the right bar represents Carrarese.

On the ball

20 matches

13.29

shots

13.53

4.12

shots on target

3.71

31.0%

accuracy

27.4%

4.11

corners

6.11

13.63

fouls

13.11

1.83

yellow cards

2.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Cesena	DDDDWDLDDL	1.00	1.20–1.40	4D
Carrarese	LLLLDLLDLD	0.30	0.50–1.40	4L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Cesena	5	7	7	1	4
Carrarese	1	10	8	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Cesena

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Carrarese

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.