Modena

Modena

VS Scheduled Saturday 5 Dec 202600:00

Italy 26/27 Serie B · Matchday 15

Arezzo

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Modena2–1Empoli
2026-09-13	26/27	Sudtirol1–1Modena
2026-09-12	26/27	Sudtirol1–1Modena
2026-09-06	26/27	Modena0–1Avellino
2026-08-28	26/27	Cremonese0–3Modena
2026-08-22	26/27	Benevento1–2Modena
2026-05-08	25/26	Avellino1–0Modena
2026-05-01	25/26	Modena2–1Reggiana

Arezzo

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Arezzo1–4Sudtirol
2026-09-11	26/27	Empoli0–1Arezzo
2026-09-06	26/27	Verona5–0Arezzo
2026-08-30	26/27	Arezzo2–3Palermo
2026-08-22	26/27	Avellino1–2Arezzo

Modena Arezzo

Wins

50%

40%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

80%

Both teams scored

62%

60%

Clean sheets

12%

20%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Modena

Home · Serie B

Home			Away		1st goal
4	Modena		Mantova	1
4	Modena		Palermo	2
4	Modena		Sudtirol	3
4 · Modena
4	Modena		Ascoli	5
4	Modena		Padova	6
4	Modena		Cesena	7
4	Modena	0–1	Avellino	8	8′ Away
4	Modena		Verona	9
4	Modena		Benevento	10
4	Modena		Pisa	11
4	Modena		Cremonese	12
4	Modena	2–1	Empoli	13	27′ Away
4	Modena		Vicenza	14
4	Modena		Catanzaro	15
4	Modena		Juve Stabia	16
4	Modena		Arezzo	17
4	Modena		Virtus Entella	18
4	Modena		Sampdoria	19
4	Modena		Carrarese	20

Arezzo

Away · Serie B

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Mantova		Arezzo	17
2	Palermo		Arezzo	17
3	Sudtirol		Arezzo	17
4	Modena		Arezzo	17
5	Ascoli		Arezzo	17
6	Padova		Arezzo	17
7	Cesena		Arezzo	17
8	Avellino	1–2	Arezzo	17	15′ Home
9	Verona	5–0	Arezzo	17	50′ Home
10	Benevento		Arezzo	17
11	Pisa		Arezzo	17
12	Cremonese		Arezzo	17
13	Empoli	0–1	Arezzo	17	—
14	Vicenza		Arezzo	17
15	Catanzaro		Arezzo	17
16	Juve Stabia		Arezzo	17
17 · Arezzo
18	Virtus Entella		Arezzo	17
19	Sampdoria		Arezzo	17
20	Carrarese		Arezzo	17

Modena Home Arezzo Away

Wins

50%

67%

Over 1.5

50%

67%

Over 2.5

50%

67%

Over 3.5

0%

33%

Both teams scored

50%

33%

Clean sheets

0%

33%

Scores first

0%

33%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Serie B · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Modena

6 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away4 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	1.50	2.00	1.83
Draws	0.0%	50.0%	33.3%
Goals scored / match	1.00	1.75	1.50
Goals conceded / match	1.00	0.75	0.83
Total goals / match	2.00	2.50	2.33
Failed to score	50.0%	0.0%	16.7%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 0	—
Scores first → wins	0 of 0	—
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 2/2 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	1
16–30	0	1
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	0
61–75	2	0
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Arezzo

5 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away3 matches	Overall5 matches
Points / match	0.00	2.00	1.20
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	1.50	1.00	1.20
Goals conceded / match	3.50	2.00	2.60
Total goals / match	5.00	3.00	3.80
Failed to score	0.0%	33.3%	20.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	33.3%	20.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Modena	Draw	Arezzo	How it works
Strength (Elo)	46.4%	29.0%	24.7%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	61.0%	18.0%	16.9%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

2.46–1.21 Model expected goals

66.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

61.2% Both teams to score

2-1 Most likely score, at 9.3%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

2-19.3%

2-07.7%

3-17.7%

1-17.6%

3-06.4%

1-06.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Modena	Arezzo	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1537	1475	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	3	-36	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1495	1507	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	55.3%	44.3%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	52.4%	32.1%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1027	971	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	30.3%	44.4%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	72.5%	52.6%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Modena	0.63	0.74	0.68	0.42
Arezzo	0.00	1.20	0.60	2.00

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Modena	12%	12%	25%	42%	8%
Arezzo	0%	20%	0%	20%	60%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.78 Modena at home, 9 matches

2.00 Arezzo away, 3 matches

76d Days of rest for Modena

76d Days of rest for Arezzo

— Manager of Modena

— Manager of Arezzo

0 Matches for Modena in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Arezzo in the last 14 days

3 Points for Modena behind the leaders, and 5 above the relegation zone

8 Points for Arezzo behind the leaders, and 0 above the relegation zone

2.52 League goals per match

32.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Modena, the right bar represents Arezzo.

On the ball

20 matches

14.35

shots

11.67

4.47

shots on target

3.0

31.1%

accuracy

25.7%

4.63

corners

4.8

13.68

fouls

12.0

1.95

yellow cards

1.4

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Modena	WDDLWWLWLL	1.40	1.20–1.00	1W
Arezzo	LWLLW	1.20	1.20–2.60	1L

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Modena	8	2	9	2	2
Arezzo	0	2	3	1	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Modena

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Arezzo

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.