Mantova

Mantova

VS Scheduled Saturday 5 Dec 202600:00

Italy 26/27 Serie B · Matchday 15

Ascoli

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Mantova2–2Pisa
2026-09-14	26/27	Mantova2–0Sampdoria
2026-09-13	26/27	Mantova2–0Sampdoria
2026-09-06	26/27	Cesena1–1Mantova
2026-08-30	26/27	Mantova3–1Empoli
2026-08-22	26/27	Carrarese1–2Mantova
2026-05-08	25/26	Frosinone5–0Mantova
2026-05-01	25/26	Mantova3–2Monza

Ascoli

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Ascoli3–1Avellino
2026-09-13	26/27	Padova1–0Ascoli
2026-09-12	26/27	Padova1–0Ascoli
2026-09-05	26/27	Ascoli1–0Benevento
2026-08-29	26/27	Ascoli1–1Carrarese
2026-08-23	26/27	Verona1–2Ascoli
2024-05-10	23/24	Ascoli2–1Pisa
2024-05-05	23/24	Palermo2–2Ascoli

Mantova Ascoli

Wins

62%

50%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

50%

Both teams scored

62%

Clean sheets

25%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Mantova

Home · Serie B

Home			Away		1st goal
1 · Mantova
1	Mantova		Palermo	2
1	Mantova		Sudtirol	3
1	Mantova		Modena	4
1	Mantova		Ascoli	5
1	Mantova		Padova	6
1	Mantova		Cesena	7
1	Mantova		Avellino	8
1	Mantova		Verona	9
1	Mantova		Benevento	10
1	Mantova	2–2	Pisa	11	8′ Home
1	Mantova		Cremonese	12
1	Mantova	3–1	Empoli	13	51′ Away
1	Mantova		Vicenza	14
1	Mantova		Catanzaro	15
1	Mantova		Juve Stabia	16
1	Mantova		Arezzo	17
1	Mantova		Virtus Entella	18
1	Mantova	2–0	Sampdoria	19	58′ Home
1	Mantova	2–0	Sampdoria	19	—
1	Mantova		Carrarese	20

Ascoli

Away · Serie B

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Mantova		Ascoli	5
2	Palermo		Ascoli	5
3	Sudtirol		Ascoli	5
4	Modena		Ascoli	5
5 · Ascoli
6	Padova	1–0	Ascoli	5	63′ Home
6	Padova	1–0	Ascoli	5	—
7	Cesena		Ascoli	5
8	Avellino		Ascoli	5
9	Verona	1–2	Ascoli	5	21′ Home
10	Benevento		Ascoli	5
11	Pisa		Ascoli	5
12	Cremonese		Ascoli	5
13	Empoli		Ascoli	5
14	Vicenza		Ascoli	5
15	Catanzaro		Ascoli	5
16	Juve Stabia		Ascoli	5
17	Arezzo		Ascoli	5
18	Virtus Entella		Ascoli	5
19	Sampdoria		Ascoli	5
20	Carrarese		Ascoli	5

Mantova Home Ascoli Away

Wins

75%

33%

Over 1.5

100%

33%

Over 2.5

50%

33%

Over 3.5

50%

0%

Both teams scored

50%

33%

Clean sheets

50%

0%

Scores first

75%

0%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Serie B · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Mantova

6 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away2 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	2.50	2.00	2.33
Draws	25.0%	50.0%	33.3%
Goals scored / match	2.25	1.50	2.00
Goals conceded / match	0.75	1.00	0.83
Total goals / match	3.00	2.50	2.83
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Ascoli

6 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away3 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	2.33	1.00	1.67
Draws	33.3%	0.0%	16.7%
Goals scored / match	1.67	0.67	1.17
Goals conceded / match	0.67	1.00	0.83
Total goals / match	2.33	1.67	2.00
Failed to score	0.0%	66.7%	33.3%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	66.7%	66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 0	—
Scores first → wins	0 of 0	—
Concedes first → wins	1 of 3	33%

Scoring order known: 3/3 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Mantova	Draw	Ascoli	How it works
Strength (Elo)	42.0%	30.9%	27.1%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	28.5%	30.9%	40.4%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.87–1.10 Model expected goals

31.2% Probability of over 2.5 goals

38.6% Both teams to score

0-1 Most likely score, at 15.4%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-115.4%

0-014.0%

1-113.3%

1-012.2%

0-28.4%

1-27.3%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Mantova	Ascoli	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1533	1504	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	52	35	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1504	1486	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	53.2%	49.6%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	54.9%	51.3%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1002	1072	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	34.6%	27.9%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	65.6%	79.3%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Mantova	0.74	0.89	0.47	0.79
Ascoli	0.42	0.63	0.42	0.32

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Mantova	5%	18%	25%	25%	28%
Ascoli	15%	28%	22%	15%	20%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.36 Mantova at home, 11 matches

1.22 Ascoli away, 9 matches

76d Days of rest for Mantova

77d Days of rest for Ascoli

— Manager of Mantova

— Manager of Ascoli

0 Matches for Mantova in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Ascoli in the last 14 days

0 Points for Mantova behind the leaders, and 8 above the relegation zone

4 Points for Ascoli behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

2.52 League goals per match

32.6% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Mantova, the right bar represents Ascoli.

On the ball

20 matches

13.29

shots

11.18

4.59

shots on target

3.59

34.5%

accuracy

32.1%

4.37

corners

5.06

15.47

fouls

14.21

2.22

yellow cards

2.26

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Mantova	DWWDWWLWWL	2.00	1.80–1.40	1D
Ascoli	WLLWDWWDLW	1.70	1.20–0.90	1W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Mantova	9	5	5	1	3
Ascoli	4	11	4	2	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Mantova

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Ascoli

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.