Exeter

Exeter

VS Scheduled Saturday 3 Oct 202615:00

England 26/27 League Two · Matchday 9

Rotherham

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Bristol Rvs1–0Exeter
2026-09-19	26/27	Exeter0–0Tranmere
2026-09-13	26/27	Port Vale1–0Exeter
2026-09-12	26/27	Port Vale1–0Exeter
2026-09-05	26/27	Exeter0–0Walsall
2026-09-01	26/27	Exeter1–1Barnet
2026-08-29	26/27	York2–1Exeter
2026-08-22	26/27	Exeter2–0Accrington

Rotherham

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Rotherham1–1Crewe
2026-09-19	26/27	Northampton0–1Rotherham
2026-09-13	26/27	Rotherham3–3Salford
2026-09-12	26/27	Rotherham3–3Salford
2026-09-05	26/27	Bristol Rvs1–0Rotherham
2026-09-01	26/27	Tranmere2–2Rotherham
2026-08-29	26/27	Rotherham2–1Chesterfield
2026-08-22	26/27	Rotherham1–1York

Exeter Rotherham

Wins

12%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

12%

50%

Both teams scored

25%

75%

Clean sheets

38%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Exeter

Home · League Two

Home			Away		1st goal
22	Exeter	1–1	Barnet	1	60′ Away
22	Exeter		Cheltenham	2
22	Exeter		York	3
22	Exeter		Grimsby	4
22	Exeter	0–0	Walsall	5	–
22	Exeter		Gillingham	6
22	Exeter		Bristol Rvs	7
22	Exeter		Salford	8
22	Exeter		Chesterfield	9
22	Exeter		Crewe	10
22	Exeter		Rotherham	11
22	Exeter		Fleetwood Town	12
22	Exeter	0–0	Tranmere	13	–
22	Exeter		Colchester	14
22	Exeter		Rochdale	15
22	Exeter		Shrewsbury	16
22	Exeter		Swindon	17
22	Exeter		Newport County	18
22	Exeter		Port Vale	19
22	Exeter	2–0	Accrington	20	2′ Home
22	Exeter		Oldham	21
22 · Exeter
22	Exeter		Northampton	23
22	Exeter		Crawley Town	24

Rotherham

Away · League Two

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Barnet		Rotherham	11
2	Cheltenham	2–1	Rotherham	11	30′ Home
3	York		Rotherham	11
4	Grimsby		Rotherham	11
5	Walsall		Rotherham	11
6	Gillingham		Rotherham	11
7	Bristol Rvs	1–0	Rotherham	11	32′ Home
8	Salford		Rotherham	11
9	Chesterfield		Rotherham	11
10	Crewe		Rotherham	11
11 · Rotherham
12	Fleetwood Town		Rotherham	11
13	Tranmere	2–2	Rotherham	11	16′ Home
14	Colchester		Rotherham	11
15	Rochdale		Rotherham	11
16	Shrewsbury		Rotherham	11
17	Swindon		Rotherham	11
18	Newport County		Rotherham	11
19	Port Vale		Rotherham	11
20	Accrington		Rotherham	11
21	Oldham		Rotherham	11
22	Exeter		Rotherham	11
23	Northampton	0–1	Rotherham	11	73′ Away
24	Crawley Town		Rotherham	11

Exeter Home Rotherham Away

Wins

25%

Over 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

0%

50%

Over 3.5

0%

25%

Both teams scored

25%

50%

Clean sheets

75%

25%

Scores first

25%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

League Two · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Exeter

9 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away5 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.50	0.00	0.67
Draws	75.0%	0.0%	33.3%
Goals scored / match	0.75	0.20	0.44
Goals conceded / match	0.25	1.20	0.78
Total goals / match	1.00	1.40	1.22
Failed to score	50.0%	80.0%	66.7%
Under 2.5 goals	100.0%	80.0%	88.9%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 1	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	0	0
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	1
61–75	1	0
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Rotherham

9 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away4 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.40	1.00	1.22
Draws	80.0%	25.0%	55.6%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.00	1.56
Goals conceded / match	1.80	1.25	1.56
Total goals / match	3.80	2.25	3.11
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	11.1%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	50.0%	44.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	2
31–45	0	1
46–60	0	0
61–75	2	1
76–90	2	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Exeter	Draw	Rotherham	How it works
Strength (Elo)	39.8%	26.9%	33.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	35.7%	32.4%	31.8%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

0.95–0.88 Model expected goals

27.9% Probability of over 2.5 goals

36.0% Both teams to score

0-0 Most likely score, at 15.9%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

0-015.9%

1-015.2%

0-114.1%

1-113.4%

2-07.3%

2-16.4%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Exeter	Rotherham	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1487	1501	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-135	11	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1495	1502	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	55.7%	53.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	56.3%	44.4%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1061	1025	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	25.4%	37.5%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	80.8%	65.0%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Exeter	0.37	0.53	0.37	0.26
Rotherham	0.62	0.75	0.88	0.50

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Exeter	15%	25%	28%	25%	8%
Rotherham	0%	22%	22%	22%	33%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.00 Exeter at home, 9 matches

1.00 Rotherham away, 4 matches

7d Days of rest for Exeter

7d Days of rest for Rotherham

— Manager of Exeter

— Manager of Rotherham

2 Matches for Exeter in the last 14 days

2 Matches for Rotherham in the last 14 days

12 Points for Exeter behind the leaders, and -1 above the relegation zone

7 Points for Rotherham behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

2.54 League goals per match

27.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Exeter, the right bar represents Rotherham.

On the ball

20 matches

12.44

shots

12.6

4.19

shots on target

3.2

33.7%

accuracy

25.4%

5.74

corners

4.12

10.47

fouls

11.5

1.63

yellow cards

2.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Exeter	LDLLDDLWLL	0.60	0.40–0.80	1L
Rotherham	DWDDLDWDL	1.22	1.56–1.56	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Exeter	4	10	5	0	0
Rotherham	1	4	3	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Exeter

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Rotherham

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.