Swindon

Swindon

VS Scheduled Saturday 31 Oct 202615:00

England 26/27 League Two · Matchday 14

Rotherham

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Swindon1–1Accrington
2026-09-19	26/27	Salford1–0Swindon
2026-09-13	26/27	York4–0Swindon
2026-09-12	26/27	York4–0Swindon
2026-09-05	26/27	Swindon3–1Colchester
2026-09-01	26/27	Swindon3–1Port Vale
2026-08-29	26/27	Oldham3–0Swindon
2026-08-22	26/27	Swindon2–1Cheltenham

Rotherham

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Rotherham1–1Crewe
2026-09-19	26/27	Northampton0–1Rotherham
2026-09-13	26/27	Rotherham3–3Salford
2026-09-12	26/27	Rotherham3–3Salford
2026-09-05	26/27	Bristol Rvs1–0Rotherham
2026-09-01	26/27	Tranmere2–2Rotherham
2026-08-29	26/27	Rotherham2–1Chesterfield
2026-08-22	26/27	Rotherham1–1York

Swindon Rotherham

Wins

38%

25%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

50%

Both teams scored

50%

75%

Clean sheets

0%

12%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Swindon

Home · League Two

Home			Away		1st goal
17	Swindon		Barnet	1
17	Swindon	2–1	Cheltenham	2	17′ Home
17	Swindon		York	3
17	Swindon		Grimsby	4
17	Swindon		Walsall	5
17	Swindon		Gillingham	6
17	Swindon		Bristol Rvs	7
17	Swindon		Salford	8
17	Swindon		Chesterfield	9
17	Swindon		Crewe	10
17	Swindon		Rotherham	11
17	Swindon		Fleetwood Town	12
17	Swindon		Tranmere	13
17	Swindon	3–1	Colchester	14	13′ Away
17	Swindon		Rochdale	15
17	Swindon		Shrewsbury	16
17 · Swindon
17	Swindon		Newport County	18
17	Swindon	3–1	Port Vale	19	2′ Away
17	Swindon	1–1	Accrington	20	1′ Away
17	Swindon		Oldham	21
17	Swindon		Exeter	22
17	Swindon		Northampton	23
17	Swindon		Crawley Town	24

Rotherham

Away · League Two

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Barnet		Rotherham	11
2	Cheltenham	2–1	Rotherham	11	30′ Home
3	York		Rotherham	11
4	Grimsby		Rotherham	11
5	Walsall		Rotherham	11
6	Gillingham		Rotherham	11
7	Bristol Rvs	1–0	Rotherham	11	32′ Home
8	Salford		Rotherham	11
9	Chesterfield		Rotherham	11
10	Crewe		Rotherham	11
11 · Rotherham
12	Fleetwood Town		Rotherham	11
13	Tranmere	2–2	Rotherham	11	16′ Home
14	Colchester		Rotherham	11
15	Rochdale		Rotherham	11
16	Shrewsbury		Rotherham	11
17	Swindon		Rotherham	11
18	Newport County		Rotherham	11
19	Port Vale		Rotherham	11
20	Accrington		Rotherham	11
21	Oldham		Rotherham	11
22	Exeter		Rotherham	11
23	Northampton	0–1	Rotherham	11	73′ Away
24	Crawley Town		Rotherham	11

Swindon Home Rotherham Away

Wins

75%

25%

Over 1.5

100%

50%

Over 2.5

75%

50%

Over 3.5

50%

25%

Both teams scored

100%

50%

Clean sheets

0%

25%

Scores first

25%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

League Two · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Swindon

9 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away5 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	2.50	0.20	1.22
Draws	25.0%	20.0%	22.2%
Goals scored / match	2.25	0.00	1.00
Goals conceded / match	1.00	2.40	1.78
Total goals / match	3.25	2.40	2.78
Failed to score	0.0%	100.0%	55.6%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	40.0%	33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	2 of 3	67%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	3
16–30	1	0
31–45	1	0
46–60	2	0
61–75	1	0
76–90	3	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Rotherham

9 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away4 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.40	1.00	1.22
Draws	80.0%	25.0%	55.6%
Goals scored / match	2.00	1.00	1.56
Goals conceded / match	1.80	1.25	1.56
Total goals / match	3.80	2.25	3.11
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	11.1%
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	50.0%	44.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 3	0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	0	0
16–30	0	2
31–45	0	1
46–60	0	0
61–75	2	1
76–90	2	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Swindon	Draw	Rotherham	How it works
Strength (Elo)	39.8%	26.9%	33.2%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	19.2%	19.2%	58.4%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.24–2.31 Model expected goals

65.5% Probability of over 2.5 goals

61.6% Both teams to score

1-2 Most likely score, at 9.5%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-29.5%

1-18.2%

0-27.7%

1-37.3%

0-16.7%

0-35.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Swindon	Rotherham	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1488	1501	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-37	11	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1501	1502	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	35.3%	53.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	40.1%	44.4%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1086	1025	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	36.8%	37.5%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	71.8%	65.0%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Swindon	0.37	0.79	0.68	0.89
Rotherham	0.62	0.75	0.88	0.50

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Swindon	2%	15%	22%	32%	28%
Rotherham	0%	22%	22%	22%	33%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.67 Swindon at home, 9 matches

1.00 Rotherham away, 4 matches

35d Days of rest for Swindon

35d Days of rest for Rotherham

— Manager of Swindon

— Manager of Rotherham

0 Matches for Swindon in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Rotherham in the last 14 days

7 Points for Swindon behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

7 Points for Rotherham behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

2.54 League goals per match

27.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Swindon, the right bar represents Rotherham.

On the ball

20 matches

8.44

shots

12.6

3.56

shots on target

3.2

42.2%

accuracy

25.4%

4.58

corners

4.12

8.79

fouls

11.5

1.59

yellow cards

2.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Swindon	DLLLWWLWDL	1.10	1.00–1.80	1D
Rotherham	DWDDLDWDL	1.22	1.56–1.56	1D

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Swindon	3	10	6	1	2
Rotherham	1	4	3	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Swindon

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Rotherham

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

Foxes pain and Burnley suffer hangover - Aaron McLean's EFL takeaways BBC Sport 09-05