Cheltenham

Cheltenham

VS Scheduled Tuesday 1 Dec 202619:45

England 26/27 League Two · Matchday 18

Rochdale

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Cheltenham2–1Chesterfield
2026-09-19	26/27	Colchester1–1Cheltenham
2026-09-13	26/27	Crawley Town1–3Cheltenham
2026-09-12	26/27	Crawley Town1–3Cheltenham
2026-09-05	26/27	Cheltenham2–2Grimsby
2026-09-01	26/27	Cheltenham3–2York
2026-08-29	26/27	Barnet2–2Cheltenham
2026-08-22	26/27	Swindon2–1Cheltenham

Rochdale

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-26	26/27	Fleetwood Town1–2Rochdale
2026-09-19	26/27	Rochdale2–0Oldham
2026-09-13	26/27	Walsall0–0Rochdale
2026-09-12	26/27	Walsall0–0Rochdale
2026-09-05	26/27	Rochdale1–4Gillingham
2026-09-01	26/27	Rochdale3–0Shrewsbury
2026-08-29	26/27	Colchester1–0Rochdale
2026-08-22	26/27	Rochdale1–2Crawley Town

Cheltenham Rochdale

Wins

50%

38%

Over 2.5 goals

88%

50%

Both teams scored

100%

38%

Clean sheets

0%

50%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Cheltenham

Home · League Two

Home			Away		1st goal
2	Cheltenham		Barnet	1
2 · Cheltenham
2	Cheltenham	3–2	York	3	12′ Away
2	Cheltenham	2–2	Grimsby	4	12′ Home
2	Cheltenham		Walsall	5
2	Cheltenham		Gillingham	6
2	Cheltenham		Bristol Rvs	7
2	Cheltenham		Salford	8
2	Cheltenham	2–1	Chesterfield	9	17′ Home
2	Cheltenham		Crewe	10
2	Cheltenham	2–1	Rotherham	11	30′ Home
2	Cheltenham		Fleetwood Town	12
2	Cheltenham		Tranmere	13
2	Cheltenham		Colchester	14
2	Cheltenham		Rochdale	15
2	Cheltenham		Shrewsbury	16
2	Cheltenham		Swindon	17
2	Cheltenham		Newport County	18
2	Cheltenham		Port Vale	19
2	Cheltenham		Accrington	20
2	Cheltenham		Oldham	21
2	Cheltenham		Exeter	22
2	Cheltenham		Northampton	23
2	Cheltenham		Crawley Town	24

Rochdale

Away · League Two

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Barnet		Rochdale	15
2	Cheltenham		Rochdale	15
3	York		Rochdale	15
4	Grimsby		Rochdale	15
5	Walsall	0–0	Rochdale	15	–
5	Walsall	0–0	Rochdale	15	–
6	Gillingham		Rochdale	15
7	Bristol Rvs		Rochdale	15
8	Salford		Rochdale	15
9	Chesterfield		Rochdale	15
10	Crewe		Rochdale	15
11	Rotherham		Rochdale	15
12	Fleetwood Town	1–2	Rochdale	15	8′ Away
13	Tranmere		Rochdale	15
14	Colchester	1–0	Rochdale	15	87′ Home
15 · Rochdale
16	Shrewsbury		Rochdale	15
17	Swindon		Rochdale	15
18	Newport County	3–0	Rochdale	15	18′ Home
19	Port Vale		Rochdale	15
20	Accrington		Rochdale	15
21	Oldham		Rochdale	15
22	Exeter		Rochdale	15
23	Northampton		Rochdale	15
24	Crawley Town		Rochdale	15

Cheltenham Home Rochdale Away

Wins

75%

20%

Over 1.5

100%

40%

Over 2.5

100%

40%

Over 3.5

50%

0%

Both teams scored

100%

20%

Clean sheets

0%

40%

Scores first

75%

20%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

League Two · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Cheltenham

9 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away5 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	2.50	1.60	2.00
Draws	25.0%	40.0%	33.3%
Goals scored / match	2.25	2.00	2.11
Goals conceded / match	1.50	1.40	1.44
Total goals / match	3.75	3.40	3.56
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	20.0%	11.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	3 of 3	100%
Scores first → wins	2 of 3	67%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	3	0
31–45	2	0
46–60	0	2
61–75	2	2
76–90	1	1

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Rochdale

9 matches

Goals & results	Home4 matches	Away5 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.50	1.00	1.22
Draws	0.0%	40.0%	22.2%
Goals scored / match	1.75	0.40	1.00
Goals conceded / match	1.50	1.00	1.22
Total goals / match	3.25	1.40	2.22
Failed to score	0.0%	80.0%	44.4%
Under 2.5 goals	25.0%	60.0%	44.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 2	0%

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	0
16–30	0	2
31–45	0	1
46–60	0	0
61–75	0	0
76–90	0	2

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Cheltenham	Draw	Rochdale	How it works
Strength (Elo)	46.4%	25.3%	28.3%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	36.3%	21.8%	39.8%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.77–1.87 Model expected goals

68.3% Probability of over 2.5 goals

68.4% Both teams to score

1-1 Most likely score, at 8.7%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-18.7%

1-28.1%

2-17.7%

2-27.2%

1-35.0%

0-14.9%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Cheltenham	Rochdale	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1504	1462	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	64	60	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1496	1485	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	43.3%	38.8%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	45.4%	37.7%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1017	1117	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	46.3%	51.2%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	55.4%	60.6%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Cheltenham	0.58	1.05	0.74	0.95
Rochdale	0.68	0.68	0.79	0.74

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Cheltenham	2%	10%	25%	18%	45%
Rochdale	8%	22%	25%	28%	18%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.80 Cheltenham at home, 10 matches

0.91 Rochdale away, 11 matches

66d Days of rest for Cheltenham

66d Days of rest for Rochdale

— Manager of Cheltenham

— Manager of Rochdale

0 Matches for Cheltenham in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Rochdale in the last 14 days

0 Points for Cheltenham behind the leaders, and 11 above the relegation zone

7 Points for Rochdale behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone

2.54 League goals per match

27.8% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Cheltenham, the right bar represents Rochdale.

On the ball

20 matches

9.81

shots

8.62

3.38

shots on target

2.69

34.4%

accuracy

31.2%

4.37

corners

3.72

9.95

fouls

10.32

1.67

yellow cards

1.53

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Cheltenham	WDWWDWDLWL	1.80	2.00–1.70	1W
Rochdale	WWDDLWLLLD	1.20	1.00–1.20	2W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Cheltenham	5	7	7	1	2
Rochdale	6	6	7	0	1

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Cheltenham

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Rochdale

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

No recent news linked to these teams.