Arsenal

Arsenal

VS Scheduled Saturday 10 Oct 202612:30

England 26/27 Premier League · Matchday 6

Leeds

Head-to-head overview

8 meetings

ArsenalWins: 7
Draws12.5% of meetings: 1
LeedsWins: 0

Goals per match: 3.62
Over 2.5 goals: 75.0%
Both teams scored: 50.0%

Date	Season	Match
2026-01-31	25/26	Leeds0–4Arsenal
2025-08-23	25/26	Arsenal5–0Leeds
2023-04-01	22/23	Arsenal4–1Leeds
2022-10-16	22/23	Leeds0–1Arsenal
2022-05-08	21/22	Arsenal2–1Leeds
2021-12-18	21/22	Leeds1–4Arsenal
2021-02-14	20/21	Arsenal4–2Leeds
2020-11-22	20/21	Leeds0–0Arsenal

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Brighton3–0Arsenal
2026-09-13	26/27	Sunderland0–2Arsenal
2026-09-12	26/27	Sunderland0–2Arsenal
2026-09-06	26/27	Arsenal2–1Chelsea
2026-08-31	26/27	Aston Villa0–1Arsenal
2026-08-21	26/27	Arsenal3–0Coventry
2026-05-24	25/26	Crystal Palace1–2Arsenal
2026-05-18	25/26	Arsenal1–0Burnley

Leeds

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Leeds0–0Crystal Palace
2026-09-14	26/27	Leeds4–1Newcastle
2026-09-05	26/27	Brighton1–1Leeds
2026-08-30	26/27	Leeds1–1Brentford
2026-08-22	26/27	Nott'm Forest0–1Leeds
2026-05-24	25/26	West Ham3–0Leeds
2026-05-17	25/26	Leeds1–0Brighton
2026-05-11	25/26	Tottenham1–1Leeds

Arsenal Leeds

Wins

88%

38%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

25%

Both teams scored

25%

50%

Clean sheets

62%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Arsenal

Home · Premier League

Home			Away		1st goal
2	Arsenal		Man City	1
2 · Arsenal
2	Arsenal		Brighton	3
2	Arsenal		Brentford	4
2	Arsenal		Liverpool	5
2	Arsenal		Everton	6
2	Arsenal		Leeds	7
2	Arsenal		Hull	8
2	Arsenal		Ipswich	9
2	Arsenal		Newcastle	10
2	Arsenal		Nott'm Forest	11
2	Arsenal	2–1	Chelsea	12	2′ Away
2	Arsenal		Man United	13
2	Arsenal		Bournemouth	14
2	Arsenal		Crystal Palace	15
2	Arsenal		Sunderland	16
2	Arsenal		Aston Villa	17
2	Arsenal		Fulham	18
2	Arsenal		Tottenham	19
2	Arsenal	3–0	Coventry	20	15′ Home

Leeds

Away · Premier League

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Man City		Leeds	7
2	Arsenal		Leeds	7
3	Brighton	1–1	Leeds	7	15′ Away
4	Brentford		Leeds	7
5	Liverpool		Leeds	7
6	Everton		Leeds	7
7 · Leeds
8	Hull		Leeds	7
9	Ipswich		Leeds	7
10	Newcastle		Leeds	7
11	Nott'm Forest	0–1	Leeds	7	88′ Away
12	Chelsea		Leeds	7
13	Man United		Leeds	7
14	Bournemouth		Leeds	7
15	Crystal Palace		Leeds	7
16	Sunderland		Leeds	7
17	Aston Villa		Leeds	7
18	Fulham		Leeds	7
19	Tottenham		Leeds	7
20	Coventry		Leeds	7

Arsenal Home Leeds Away

Wins

100%

50%

Over 1.5

100%

50%

Over 2.5

100%

0%

Over 3.5

0%

Both teams scored

50%

Clean sheets

50%

Scores first

50%

100%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Premier League · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Arsenal

6 matches

Goals & results	Home2 matches	Away4 matches	Overall6 matches
Points / match	3.00	2.25	2.50
Draws	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Goals scored / match	2.50	1.25	1.67
Goals conceded / match	0.50	0.75	0.67
Total goals / match	3.00	2.00	2.33
Failed to score	0.0%	25.0%	16.7%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	75.0%	50.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 1	100%
Scores first → wins	1 of 1	100%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 1	100%

Scoring order known: 2/2 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	1
16–30	2	0
31–45	0	0
46–60	2	0
61–75	0	0
76–90	0	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Leeds

5 matches

Goals & results	Home3 matches	Away2 matches	Overall5 matches
Points / match	1.67	2.00	1.80
Draws	66.7%	50.0%	60.0%
Goals scored / match	1.67	1.00	1.40
Goals conceded / match	0.67	0.50	0.60
Total goals / match	2.33	1.50	2.00
Failed to score	33.3%	0.0%	20.0%
Under 2.5 goals	66.7%	100.0%	80.0%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	1 of 2	50%
Scores first → wins	1 of 2	50%
Concedes first → wins	0 of 0	—

Scoring order known: 2/2 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	1	0
16–30	0	0
31–45	0	0
46–60	0	0
61–75	0	1
76–90	1	0

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Arsenal	Draw	Leeds	How it works
Strength (Elo)	63.7%	16.2%	20.1%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	49.3%	30.3%	20.2%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

1.21–0.66 Model expected goals

28.8% Probability of over 2.5 goals

34.0% Both teams to score

1-0 Most likely score, at 18.6%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

1-018.6%

0-015.3%

1-112.3%

2-011.3%

0-110.1%

2-17.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Arsenal	Leeds	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1694	1534	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	-26	24	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1523	1538	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	61.5%	45.5%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	64.1%	44.3%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1139	1077	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	37.8%	31.8%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	76.1%	75.9%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved