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Millwall
VS Scheduled England 26/27 Championship · Matchday 11
Lincoln
Recent matches

Millwall

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-19 England, Championship 26/27 Millwall2–2West Ham
2026-09-15 England, Championship 26/27 Middlesbrough2–2Millwall
2026-09-13 England, Championship 26/27 Blackburn3–1Millwall
2026-09-12 England, Championship 26/27 Blackburn3–1Millwall
2026-09-05 England, Championship 26/27 Millwall4–0Bolton
2026-09-02 England, Championship 26/27 Millwall0–3Wrexham
2026-08-29 England, Championship 26/27 Southampton5–1Millwall
2026-08-22 England, Championship 26/27 Millwall3–0Norwich

Lincoln

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-19 England, Championship 26/27 Lincoln1–2Swansea
2026-09-15 England, Championship 26/27 Bristol City0–1Lincoln
2026-09-13 England, Championship 26/27 Preston0–1Lincoln
2026-09-12 England, Championship 26/27 Preston0–1Lincoln
2026-09-05 England, Championship 26/27 Lincoln1–1Southampton
2026-09-01 England, Championship 26/27 Lincoln0–0Blackburn
2026-08-29 England, Championship 26/27 Bolton0–1Lincoln
2026-08-22 England, Championship 26/27 Lincoln1–3Portsmouth
Millwall Lincoln

Wins

25%
50%

Over 2.5 goals

100%
25%

Both teams scored

62%
38%

Clean sheets

25%
62%
Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Millwall

Home · Championship
HomeAway1st goal
15 Millwall Swansea 1
15 Millwall Middlesbrough 2
15 Millwall Southampton 3
15 Millwall Wolves 4
15 Millwall Stoke 5
15 Millwall 2–2 West Ham 6 16′ Home
15 Millwall West Brom 7
15 Millwall QPR 8
15 Millwall Birmingham 9
15 Millwall Lincoln 10
15 Millwall 4–0 Bolton 11 38′ Home
15 Millwall Charlton 12
15 Millwall Bristol City 13
15 Millwall Blackburn 14
15 · Millwall
15 Millwall 0–3 Wrexham 16 —
15 Millwall Portsmouth 17
15 Millwall 3–0 Norwich 18 18′ Home
15 Millwall Sheffield United 19
15 Millwall Watford 20
15 Millwall Cardiff 21
15 Millwall Derby 22
15 Millwall Preston 23
15 Millwall Burnley 24

Lincoln

Away · Championship
HomeAway1st goal
1 Swansea Lincoln 10
2 Middlesbrough 2–1 Lincoln 10 12′ Away
3 Southampton Lincoln 10
4 Wolves Lincoln 10
5 Stoke Lincoln 10
6 West Ham Lincoln 10
7 West Brom Lincoln 10
8 QPR Lincoln 10
9 Birmingham Lincoln 10
10 · Lincoln
11 Bolton 0–1 Lincoln 10 66′ Away
12 Charlton Lincoln 10
13 Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln 10 53′ Away
14 Blackburn Lincoln 10
15 Millwall Lincoln 10
16 Wrexham Lincoln 10
17 Portsmouth Lincoln 10
18 Norwich Lincoln 10
19 Sheffield United Lincoln 10
20 Watford Lincoln 10
21 Cardiff Lincoln 10
22 Derby Lincoln 10
23 Preston 0–1 Lincoln 10 81′ Away
23 Preston 0–1 Lincoln 10 —
24 Burnley Lincoln 10
Millwall Home Lincoln Away

Wins

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Both teams scored

Clean sheets

Scores first

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Championship · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Millwall

9 matches
Goals & resultsHome4 matchesAway5 matchesOverall9 matches
Points / match1.750.801.22
Draws25.0%20.0%22.2%
Goals scored / match2.251.401.78
Goals conceded / match1.252.602.00
Total goals / match3.504.003.78
Failed to score25.0%0.0%11.1%
Under 2.5 goals0.0%20.0%11.1%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time 3 of 3 100%
Scores first → wins 2 of 3 67%
Concedes first → wins 0 of 1 0%

Scoring order known: 4/4 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–15——
16–30——
31–45——
46–60——
61–75——
76–90——

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Lincoln

9 matches
Goals & resultsHome4 matchesAway5 matchesOverall9 matches
Points / match0.502.401.56
Draws50.0%0.0%22.2%
Goals scored / match0.751.000.89
Goals conceded / match1.500.400.89
Total goals / match2.251.401.78
Failed to score25.0%0.0%11.1%
Under 2.5 goals50.0%80.0%66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time — —
Scores first → wins 4 of 5 80%
Concedes first → wins 0 of 0 —

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–15——
16–30——
31–45——
46–60——
61–75——
76–90——

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

ModelMillwallDraw LincolnHow it works
Strength (Elo) 45.9% 24.7% 29.4% Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson) 34.3% 30.1% 35.5% Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average
1.03–1.05 Model expected goals
34.4% Probability of over 2.5 goals
41.8% Both teams to score
1-1 Most likely score, at 13.5%

Most likely scores

Poisson model
1-113.5%
0-113.1%
1-012.8%
0-012.5%
1-27.1%
2-17.0%
Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

MeasureMillwallLincoln How to read it
Strength (Elo) 1540 1507 The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10 -53 14 Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength 1509 1499 Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share 49.7% 46.4% Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share 56.9% 35.0% The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO) 1069 1055 Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion 40.9% 28.6% Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage 66.0% 76.9% Opponents' shots on target that are saved
Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches
Team1H scored2H scored 1H conceded2H conceded
Millwall 0.740.95 0.370.89
Lincoln 0.380.50 0.380.62

Total goals

40 matches per team
Team012 34+
Millwall 8%8%28%25%32%
Lincoln 11%44%11%22%11%
Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.78 Millwall at home, 9 matches
2.40 Lincoln away, 5 matches
28d Days of rest for Millwall
28d Days of rest for Lincoln
— Manager of Millwall
— Manager of Lincoln
0 Matches for Millwall in the last 14 days
0 Matches for Lincoln in the last 14 days
9 Points for Millwall behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone
6 Points for Lincoln behind the leaders, and 7 above the relegation zone
2.57 League goals per match
27.4% League draw rate
Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Millwall, the right bar represents Lincoln.

On the ball

20 matches
13.81
shots
14.0
4.12
shots on target
2.8
29.9%
accuracy
20.0%
5.63
corners
4.29
11.58
fouls
13.5
1.53
yellow cards
2.71

Recent form

10 matches
TeamLast 10PPG goalsstreak
Millwall DDLLWLLWWW 1.40 1.80–1.80 2D
Lincoln LWWWDDWLL 1.56 0.89–0.89 1L

At half-time

20 matches
Teamaheadlevel behindcomeback winslead lost
Millwall9 55 12
Lincoln2 42 02
Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Millwall

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Lincoln

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

Flemming and Ipswich floor 10-man Crystal Palace with 90th-minute winner The Guardian 09-12
Foxes pain and Burnley suffer hangover - Aaron McLean's EFL takeaways BBC Sport 09-05
Azeez to Andrés: seven smart-looking Premier League deadline day deals The Guardian 09-03