Southampton

Southampton

VS Scheduled Saturday 17 Oct 202615:00

England 26/27 Championship · Matchday 11

Bolton

Recent matches

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-19	26/27	Wrexham2–1Southampton
2026-09-13	26/27	Southampton4–1Bristol City
2026-09-12	26/27	Southampton4–1Bristol City
2026-09-08	26/27	Southampton3–1Swansea
2026-09-05	26/27	Lincoln1–1Southampton
2026-09-01	26/27	Birmingham1–1Southampton
2026-08-29	26/27	Southampton5–1Millwall
2026-08-22	26/27	Southampton3–1Stoke

Bolton

Date	Season	Match
2026-09-20	26/27	Norwich3–4Bolton
2026-09-13	26/27	Bolton1–0Cardiff
2026-09-12	26/27	Bolton1–0Cardiff
2026-09-08	26/27	Bolton2–3West Ham
2026-09-05	26/27	Millwall4–0Bolton
2026-09-01	26/27	Sheffield United3–2Bolton
2026-08-29	26/27	Bolton0–1Lincoln
2026-08-22	26/27	QPR0–0Bolton

Southampton Bolton

Wins

62%

38%

Over 2.5 goals

75%

50%

Both teams scored

100%

38%

Clean sheets

0%

38%

Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Southampton

Home · Championship

Home			Away		1st goal
3	Southampton	3–1	Swansea	1	9′ Home
3	Southampton		Middlesbrough	2
3 · Southampton
3	Southampton		Wolves	4
3	Southampton	3–1	Stoke	5	8′ Home
3	Southampton		West Ham	6
3	Southampton		West Brom	7
3	Southampton		QPR	8
3	Southampton		Birmingham	9
3	Southampton		Lincoln	10
3	Southampton		Bolton	11
3	Southampton		Charlton	12
3	Southampton	4–1	Bristol City	13	38′ Home
3	Southampton	4–1	Bristol City	13	—
3	Southampton		Blackburn	14
3	Southampton	5–1	Millwall	15	15′ Away
3	Southampton		Wrexham	16
3	Southampton		Portsmouth	17
3	Southampton		Norwich	18
3	Southampton		Sheffield United	19
3	Southampton		Watford	20
3	Southampton		Cardiff	21
3	Southampton		Derby	22
3	Southampton		Preston	23
3	Southampton		Burnley	24

Bolton

Away · Championship

Home			Away		1st goal
1	Swansea		Bolton	11
2	Middlesbrough		Bolton	11
3	Southampton		Bolton	11
4	Wolves		Bolton	11
5	Stoke		Bolton	11
6	West Ham		Bolton	11
7	West Brom		Bolton	11
8	QPR	0–0	Bolton	11	–
9	Birmingham		Bolton	11
10	Lincoln		Bolton	11
11 · Bolton
12	Charlton		Bolton	11
13	Bristol City		Bolton	11
14	Blackburn		Bolton	11
15	Millwall	4–0	Bolton	11	38′ Home
16	Wrexham		Bolton	11
17	Portsmouth		Bolton	11
18	Norwich	3–4	Bolton	11	5′ Home
19	Sheffield United	3–2	Bolton	11	1′ Away
20	Watford		Bolton	11
21	Cardiff		Bolton	11
22	Derby		Bolton	11
23	Preston		Bolton	11
24	Burnley		Bolton	11

Southampton Home Bolton Away

Wins

100%

25%

Over 1.5

100%

75%

Over 2.5

100%

75%

Over 3.5

100%

75%

Both teams scored

100%

50%

Clean sheets

0%

25%

Scores first

N/A

25%

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Championship · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Southampton

9 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away4 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	3.00	0.50	1.89
Draws	0.0%	50.0%	22.2%
Goals scored / match	3.80	1.00	2.56
Goals conceded / match	1.00	1.50	1.22
Total goals / match	4.80	2.50	3.78
Failed to score	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Under 2.5 goals	0.0%	50.0%	22.2%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	—	—
Scores first → wins	—	—
Concedes first → wins	—	—

Scoring order known: 4/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	—	—
16–30	—	—
31–45	—	—
46–60	—	—
61–75	—	—
76–90	—	—

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Bolton

9 matches

Goals & results	Home5 matches	Away4 matches	Overall9 matches
Points / match	1.80	1.00	1.44
Draws	0.0%	25.0%	11.1%
Goals scored / match	1.20	1.50	1.33
Goals conceded / match	1.00	2.50	1.67
Total goals / match	2.20	4.00	3.00
Failed to score	20.0%	50.0%	33.3%
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	25.0%	44.4%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time	0 of 1	0%
Scores first → wins	0 of 1	0%
Concedes first → wins	1 of 2	50%

Scoring order known: 4/4 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches

Minutes	Scored	Conceded
0–15	2	2
16–30	0	1
31–45	1	1
46–60	1	0
61–75	2	2
76–90	0	4

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

Model	Southampton	Draw	Bolton	How it works
Strength (Elo)	61.9%	18.0%	20.2%	Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson)	71.7%	11.0%	6.7%	Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average

3.20–0.87 Model expected goals

66.7% Probability of over 2.5 goals

49.8% Both teams to score

3-0 Most likely score, at 9.3%

Most likely scores

Poisson model

3-09.3%

2-08.7%

3-18.1%

2-17.6%

4-07.4%

4-16.5%

Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

Measure	Southampton	Bolton	How to read it
Strength (Elo)	1627	1477	The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10	1	185	Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength	1510	1483	Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share	53.2%	47.3%	Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share	54.1%	38.3%	The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO)	1223	859	Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion	45.9%	22.8%	Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage	76.4%	63.0%	Opponents' shots on target that are saved

Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches

Team	1H scored	2H scored	1H conceded	2H conceded
Southampton	0.89	1.42	0.53	0.53
Bolton	0.44	0.56	0.89	1.17

Total goals

40 matches per team

Team	0	1	2	3	4+
Southampton	2%	8%	22%	25%	42%
Bolton	5%	25%	28%	20%	22%

Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

2.64 Southampton at home, 11 matches

0.78 Bolton away, 9 matches

28d Days of rest for Southampton

27d Days of rest for Bolton

— Manager of Southampton

— Manager of Bolton

0 Matches for Southampton in the last 14 days

0 Matches for Bolton in the last 14 days

3 Points for Southampton behind the leaders, and 10 above the relegation zone

7 Points for Bolton behind the leaders, and 6 above the relegation zone

2.57 League goals per match

27.4% League draw rate

Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Southampton, the right bar represents Bolton.

On the ball

20 matches

15.24

shots

12.06

5.0

shots on target

3.56

32.8%

accuracy

29.5%

5.68

corners

4.67

8.32

fouls

11.67

1.67

yellow cards

1.0

Recent form

10 matches

Team	Last 10	PPG	goals	streak
Southampton	LWWWDDWWLW	2.00	2.60–1.20	1L
Bolton	WWWLLLLDWL	1.30	1.20–1.60	3W

At half-time

20 matches

Team	ahead	level	behind	comeback wins	lead lost
Southampton	10	4	5	2	2
Bolton	2	8	8	0	0

Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Southampton

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Bolton

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

Spygate saga continues to haunt Southampton as case drags on The Guardian 09-13