Head-to-head overview
14 meetings- MillwallWins
- 7
- Draws28.6% of meetings
- 4
- DerbyWins
- 3
- Goals per match
- 1.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 28.6%
- Both teams scored
- 42.9%
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 |
25/26
|
Millwall1–0Derby |
| 2025-12-10 |
25/26
|
Derby1–1Millwall |
| 2025-02-22 |
24/25
|
Derby0–1Millwall |
| 2024-10-19 |
24/25
|
Millwall1–1Derby |
| 2022-02-23 |
21/22
|
Derby1–2Millwall |
| 2021-11-06 |
21/22
|
Millwall1–1Derby |
| 2021-03-13 |
20/21
|
Derby0–1Millwall |
| 2020-12-05 |
20/21
|
Millwall0–1Derby |
| 2020-06-20 |
19/20
|
Millwall2–3Derby |
| 2019-12-14 |
19/20
|
Derby0–1Millwall |
| 2019-02-20 |
18/19
|
Derby0–1Millwall |
| 2018-08-18 |
18/19
|
Millwall2–1Derby |
| 2018-01-30 |
17/18
|
Millwall0–0Derby |
| 2017-12-23 |
17/18
|
Derby3–0Millwall |
Recent matches
Millwall
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 |
26/27
|
Millwall2–2West Ham |
| 2026-09-15 |
26/27
|
Middlesbrough2–2Millwall |
| 2026-09-13 |
26/27
|
Blackburn3–1Millwall |
| 2026-09-12 |
26/27
|
Blackburn3–1Millwall |
| 2026-09-05 |
26/27
|
Millwall4–0Bolton |
| 2026-09-02 |
26/27
|
Millwall0–3Wrexham |
| 2026-08-29 |
26/27
|
Southampton5–1Millwall |
| 2026-08-22 |
26/27
|
Millwall3–0Norwich |
Derby
| Date | Season | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 |
26/27
|
Burnley1–1Derby |
| 2026-09-13 |
26/27
|
Derby1–2Birmingham |
| 2026-09-12 |
26/27
|
Derby1–2Birmingham |
| 2026-09-09 |
26/27
|
Derby0–1West Brom |
| 2026-09-05 |
26/27
|
West Ham3–0Derby |
| 2026-09-01 |
26/27
|
Portsmouth0–2Derby |
| 2026-08-29 |
26/27
|
Derby0–3Swansea |
| 2026-08-22 |
26/27
|
Derby2–2Cardiff |
Millwall
Derby
Wins
25%
12%
Over 2.5 goals
100%
62%
Both teams scored
62%
50%
Clean sheets
25%
12%
Home & away results
This season · 26/27
Millwall
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Millwall | Swansea | 1 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Middlesbrough | 2 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Southampton | 3 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Wolves | 4 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Stoke | 5 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | 2–2 | West Ham | 6 | 16′ Home |
| 15 | Millwall | West Brom | 7 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | QPR | 8 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Birmingham | 9 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Lincoln | 10 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | 4–0 | Bolton | 11 | 38′ Home |
| 15 | Millwall | Charlton | 12 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Bristol City | 13 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Blackburn | 14 | ||
| 15 · Millwall | |||||
| 15 | Millwall | 0–3 | Wrexham | 16 | — |
| 15 | Millwall | Portsmouth | 17 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | 3–0 | Norwich | 18 | 18′ Home |
| 15 | Millwall | Sheffield United | 19 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Watford | 20 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Cardiff | 21 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Derby | 22 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Preston | 23 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Burnley | 24 | ||
Derby
| Home | Away | 1st goal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | Derby | 22 | ||
| 2 | Middlesbrough | Derby | 22 | ||
| 3 | Southampton | Derby | 22 | ||
| 4 | Wolves | Derby | 22 | ||
| 5 | Stoke | Derby | 22 | ||
| 6 | West Ham | 3–0 | Derby | 22 | 6′ Home |
| 7 | West Brom | Derby | 22 | ||
| 8 | QPR | Derby | 22 | ||
| 9 | Birmingham | Derby | 22 | ||
| 10 | Lincoln | Derby | 22 | ||
| 11 | Bolton | Derby | 22 | ||
| 12 | Charlton | 2–1 | Derby | 22 | 23′ Away |
| 13 | Bristol City | Derby | 22 | ||
| 14 | Blackburn | Derby | 22 | ||
| 15 | Millwall | Derby | 22 | ||
| 16 | Wrexham | Derby | 22 | ||
| 17 | Portsmouth | 0–2 | Derby | 22 | 16′ Away |
| 18 | Norwich | Derby | 22 | ||
| 19 | Sheffield United | Derby | 22 | ||
| 20 | Watford | Derby | 22 | ||
| 21 | Cardiff | Derby | 22 | ||
| 22 · Derby | |||||
| 23 | Preston | Derby | 22 | ||
| 24 | Burnley | 1–1 | Derby | 22 | 34′ Home |
Millwall Home
Derby Away
Wins
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
Both teams scored
Clean sheets
Scores first
Season analysis
Home, away & overall
Championship · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.
Millwall
| Goals & results | Home4 matches | Away5 matches | Overall9 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 1.75 | 0.80 | 1.22 |
| Draws | 25.0% | 20.0% | 22.2% |
| Goals scored / match | 2.25 | 1.40 | 1.78 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.25 | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| Total goals / match | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.78 |
| Failed to score | 25.0% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 20.0% | 11.1% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 3 of 3— | 100%— |
| Scores first → wins | 2 of 3— | 67%— |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 1— | 0%— |
Scoring order known: 4/4 home.Scoring order known: 8/9 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Home matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | — | — |
| 16–30 | — | — |
| 31–45 | — | — |
| 46–60 | — | — |
| 61–75 | — | — |
| 76–90 | — | — |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Derby
| Goals & results | Home5 matches | Away4 matches | Overall9 matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / match | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| Draws | 20.0% | 25.0% | 22.2% |
| Goals scored / match | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.78 |
| Total goals / match | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| Failed to score | 40.0% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.0% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
Scoring first & comebacks
| Match situation | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scores first → leads at half-time | 2 of 2— | 100%— |
| Scores first → wins | 1 of 2— | 50%— |
| Concedes first → wins | 0 of 2— | 0%— |
Scoring order known: 4/4 away.Scoring order known: 8/9 overall. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.
Goal timing
Away matches| Minutes | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 0 | 1 |
| 16–30 | 2 | 0 |
| 31–45 | 0 | 1 |
| 46–60 | 0 | 0 |
| 61–75 | 1 | 1 |
| 76–90 | 1 | 3 |
Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.
Two perspectives
What each model says about this match
The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.
| Model | Millwall | Draw | Derby | How it works |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 51.9% | 22.5% | 25.5% | Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage |
| Goals (Poisson) | 44.3% | 23.8% | 30.9% | Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average |
1.68–1.36
Model expected goals
57.5%
Probability of over 2.5 goals
59.7%
Both teams to score
1-1
Most likely score, at 10.9%
Most likely scores
1-110.9%
2-19.2%
1-08.0%
1-27.4%
2-06.7%
0-16.5%
Strength and dominance
Team strength and finishing efficiency
Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.
| Measure | Millwall | Derby | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength (Elo) | 1540 | 1461 | The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality. |
| Change over the last 10 | -53 | -77 | Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches |
| Opposition strength | 1509 | 1500 | Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule. |
| Shot share | 49.7% | 45.8% | Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents. |
| Shots on target share | 56.9% | 41.7% | The same measure, counting only shots on target |
| Finishing and saving index (PDO) | 1069 | 1045 | Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation. |
| Conversion | 40.9% | 31.7% | Shots on target converted into goals |
| Save percentage | 66.0% | 72.7% | Opponents' shots on target that are saved |
Goals
When teams score and how matches unfold
Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.
Goals by half
| Team | 1H scored | 2H scored | 1H conceded | 2H conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.37 | 0.89 |
| Derby | 0.68 | 0.47 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
Total goals
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 8% | 8% | 28% | 25% | 32% |
| Derby | 0% | 18% | 22% | 40% | 20% |
Context
Coming into the match
Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.
1.78
Millwall at home, 9 matches
1.00
Derby away, 10 matches
42d
Days of rest for Millwall
42d
Days of rest for Derby
—
Manager of Millwall
—
Manager of Derby
0
Matches for Millwall in the last 14 days
0
Matches for Derby in the last 14 days
9
Points for Millwall behind the leaders, and 4 above the relegation zone
15
Points for Derby behind the leaders, and -2 above the relegation zone
2.57
League goals per match
27.4%
League draw rate
Statistics
Side-by-side comparison
Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Millwall, the right bar represents Derby.
On the ball
13.81
12.29
shots
4.12
3.71
shots on target
29.9%
30.1%
accuracy
5.63
5.21
corners
11.58
12.79
fouls
1.53
2.67
yellow cards
Recent form
| Team | Last 10 | PPG | goals | streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | DDLLWLLWWW | 1.40 | 1.80–1.80 | 2D |
| Derby | DLLLLWLDLL | 0.50 | 0.90–1.80 | 1D |
At half-time
| Team | ahead | level | behind | comeback wins | lead lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Derby | 8 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 3 |
Squads
Injuries and suspensions
0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.
Millwall
No absences reported.
Derby
No absences reported.
Newsroom
News about both teams
Getting goal decision so wrong is 'baffling' - Rooney
BBC Sport
09-13
Watch: Match of the Day
BBC Sport
09-13
Watch: Match of the Day
BBC Sport
09-13
‘An error of judgement’: Pro Ref admits mistake in awarding Haaland’s derby winner
The Guardian
09-13
Refereeing body admits judgement error over Haaland derby winner
BBC Sport
09-13
Italians in the Premier League: Donnarumma the derby hero as Tonali’s Spurs misery continues
Football Italia
09-13
Fernandes and Foden should have been sent off - Maresca
BBC Sport
09-13