For the love of the game. Find your next match
Derby
VS Scheduled England 26/27 Championship · Matchday 22
Lincoln
Recent matches

Derby

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-19 England, Championship 26/27 Burnley1–1Derby
2026-09-13 England, Championship 26/27 Derby1–2Birmingham
2026-09-12 England, Championship 26/27 Derby1–2Birmingham
2026-09-09 England, Championship 26/27 Derby0–1West Brom
2026-09-05 England, Championship 26/27 West Ham3–0Derby
2026-09-01 England, Championship 26/27 Portsmouth0–2Derby
2026-08-29 England, Championship 26/27 Derby0–3Swansea
2026-08-22 England, Championship 26/27 Derby2–2Cardiff

Lincoln

DateSeasonMatch
2026-09-19 England, Championship 26/27 Lincoln1–2Swansea
2026-09-15 England, Championship 26/27 Bristol City0–1Lincoln
2026-09-13 England, Championship 26/27 Preston0–1Lincoln
2026-09-12 England, Championship 26/27 Preston0–1Lincoln
2026-09-05 England, Championship 26/27 Lincoln1–1Southampton
2026-09-01 England, Championship 26/27 Lincoln0–0Blackburn
2026-08-29 England, Championship 26/27 Bolton0–1Lincoln
2026-08-22 England, Championship 26/27 Lincoln1–3Portsmouth
Derby Lincoln

Wins

12%
50%

Over 2.5 goals

62%
25%

Both teams scored

50%
38%

Clean sheets

12%
62%
Home & away results

This season · 26/27

Derby

Home · Championship
HomeAway1st goal
22 Derby 0–3 Swansea 1 2′ Away
22 Derby Middlesbrough 2
22 Derby Southampton 3
22 Derby Wolves 4
22 Derby Stoke 5
22 Derby West Ham 6
22 Derby 0–1 West Brom 7 16′ Away
22 Derby QPR 8
22 Derby 1–2 Birmingham 9 40′ Home
22 Derby 1–2 Birmingham 9 —
22 Derby Lincoln 10
22 Derby Bolton 11
22 Derby Charlton 12
22 Derby Bristol City 13
22 Derby Blackburn 14
22 Derby Millwall 15
22 Derby Wrexham 16
22 Derby Portsmouth 17
22 Derby Norwich 18
22 Derby Sheffield United 19
22 Derby Watford 20
22 Derby 2–2 Cardiff 21 19′ Away
22 · Derby
22 Derby Preston 23
22 Derby Burnley 24

Lincoln

Away · Championship
HomeAway1st goal
1 Swansea Lincoln 10
2 Middlesbrough 2–1 Lincoln 10 12′ Away
3 Southampton Lincoln 10
4 Wolves Lincoln 10
5 Stoke Lincoln 10
6 West Ham Lincoln 10
7 West Brom Lincoln 10
8 QPR Lincoln 10
9 Birmingham Lincoln 10
10 · Lincoln
11 Bolton 0–1 Lincoln 10 66′ Away
12 Charlton Lincoln 10
13 Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln 10 53′ Away
14 Blackburn Lincoln 10
15 Millwall Lincoln 10
16 Wrexham Lincoln 10
17 Portsmouth Lincoln 10
18 Norwich Lincoln 10
19 Sheffield United Lincoln 10
20 Watford Lincoln 10
21 Cardiff Lincoln 10
22 Derby Lincoln 10
23 Preston 0–1 Lincoln 10 81′ Away
23 Preston 0–1 Lincoln 10 —
24 Burnley Lincoln 10
Derby Home Lincoln Away

Wins

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Both teams scored

Clean sheets

Scores first

Season analysis

Home, away & overall

Championship · 26/27 · Completed league matches only.

Derby

9 matches
Goals & resultsHome5 matchesAway4 matchesOverall9 matches
Points / match0.201.000.56
Draws20.0%25.0%22.2%
Goals scored / match0.801.000.89
Goals conceded / match2.001.501.78
Total goals / match2.802.502.67
Failed to score40.0%25.0%33.3%
Under 2.5 goals20.0%50.0%33.3%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time — —
Scores first → wins — —
Concedes first → wins — —

Scoring order known: 4/5 home. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Home matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–15——
16–30——
31–45——
46–60——
61–75——
76–90——

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Lincoln

9 matches
Goals & resultsHome4 matchesAway5 matchesOverall9 matches
Points / match0.502.401.56
Draws50.0%0.0%22.2%
Goals scored / match0.751.000.89
Goals conceded / match1.500.400.89
Total goals / match2.251.401.78
Failed to score25.0%0.0%11.1%
Under 2.5 goals50.0%80.0%66.7%

Scoring first & comebacks

Match situation
Scores first → leads at half-time — —
Scores first → wins 4 of 5 80%
Concedes first → wins 0 of 0 —

Scoring order known: 5/5 away. Percentages are shown only when the required data is complete.

Goal timing

Away matches
MinutesScoredConceded
0–15——
16–30——
31–45——
46–60——
61–75——
76–90——

Goal-minute data is not available. “—” means unavailable, not zero. The 31–45 and 76–90 intervals include stoppage time.

Two perspectives

What each model says about this match

The strength model considers results adjusted for opponent quality; the goals model uses recent form. Differences between them deserve a closer look.

ModelDerbyDraw LincolnHow it works
Strength (Elo) 36.7% 26.3% 37.0% Historical results adjusted for opponent quality and the league's home advantage
Goals (Poisson) 23.2% 31.4% 45.3% Each team's recent attack and defence relative to the league average
0.72–1.13 Model expected goals
28.1% Probability of over 2.5 goals
34.6% Both teams to score
0-1 Most likely score, at 17.8%

Most likely scores

Poisson model
0-117.8%
0-015.7%
1-112.8%
1-011.3%
0-210.1%
1-27.2%
Strength and dominance

Team strength and finishing efficiency

Recent results need context. These measures account for opponent quality and the balance of play.

MeasureDerbyLincoln How to read it
Strength (Elo) 1461 1507 The league average is 1500. A higher rating indicates stronger results after adjusting for opponent quality.
Change over the last 10 -77 14 Rating gained or lost over the last ten matches
Opposition strength 1500 1499 Average opponent rating over the last 20 matches. Above 1500 indicates a tougher schedule.
Shot share 45.8% 46.4% Share of all shots in a match. Above 50% means the team takes more shots than its opponents.
Shots on target share 41.7% 35.0% The same measure, counting only shots on target
Finishing and saving index (PDO) 1045 1055 Shooting conversion plus save percentage, on a scale centred on 1000. Extreme values can reflect short-term variation.
Conversion 31.7% 28.6% Shots on target converted into goals
Save percentage 72.7% 76.9% Opponents' shots on target that are saved
Goals

When teams score and how matches unfold

Averages hide the distribution. Teams with similar goals per match can have very different patterns of scorelines.

Goals by half

20 matches
Team1H scored2H scored 1H conceded2H conceded
Derby 0.680.47 0.680.74
Lincoln 0.380.50 0.380.62

Total goals

40 matches per team
Team012 34+
Derby 0%18%22%40%20%
Lincoln 11%44%11%22%11%
Context

Coming into the match

Home and away performance, rest since the last match, and each team's manager.

1.30 Derby at home, 10 matches
2.40 Lincoln away, 5 matches
91d Days of rest for Derby
91d Days of rest for Lincoln
— Manager of Derby
— Manager of Lincoln
0 Matches for Derby in the last 14 days
0 Matches for Lincoln in the last 14 days
15 Points for Derby behind the leaders, and -2 above the relegation zone
6 Points for Lincoln behind the leaders, and 7 above the relegation zone
2.57 League goals per match
27.4% League draw rate
Statistics

Side-by-side comparison

Averages over each team's last 20 matches. The left bar represents Derby, the right bar represents Lincoln.

On the ball

20 matches
12.29
shots
14.0
3.71
shots on target
2.8
30.1%
accuracy
20.0%
5.21
corners
4.29
12.79
fouls
13.5
2.67
yellow cards
2.71

Recent form

10 matches
TeamLast 10PPG goalsstreak
Derby DLLLLWLDLL 0.50 0.90–1.80 1D
Lincoln LWWWDDWLL 1.56 0.89–0.89 1L

At half-time

20 matches
Teamaheadlevel behindcomeback winslead lost
Derby8 47 03
Lincoln2 42 02
Squads

Injuries and suspensions

0 players reported unavailable or doubtful across both teams, with the reason.

Derby

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Lincoln

0 unavailable

No absences reported.

Newsroom

News about both teams

Getting goal decision so wrong is 'baffling' - Rooney BBC Sport 09-13
Watch: Match of the Day BBC Sport 09-13
Watch: Match of the Day BBC Sport 09-13
‘An error of judgement’: Pro Ref admits mistake in awarding Haaland’s derby winner The Guardian 09-13
Refereeing body admits judgement error over Haaland derby winner BBC Sport 09-13
Italians in the Premier League: Donnarumma the derby hero as Tonali’s Spurs misery continues Football Italia 09-13
Joint-worst start since 1992 and fan protests - Man Utd's day to forget BBC Sport 09-13
Deja vu for Pro Ref? Neville slams 'shocker' VAR decision to give Haaland goal Sky Sports 09-13
Haaland scores controversial winner as Man City win derby despite Foden red BBC Sport 09-13
Haaland scores controversial derby winner for Man City after Foden red Sky Sports 09-13
Fernandes and Foden should have been sent off - Maresca BBC Sport 09-13
Carrick 'baffled' by decision to award controversial Man City goal BBC Sport 09-13